NASCAR Pick Sheet: Goodyear 400

Sportsbook and DFS advice for this weekend's race

By Dan Beaver - May 8, 2021, 10:40am EDT

Darlington Raceway is one of the most unique tracks on the circuit.

Its egg-shaped turns and highly abrasive surface make races on this course as much a survival adventure as a contest of speed. Elapsed time is the metric that matters and occasionally it is best to slow down in the early laps so that the fall-off in grip is not as great at the end of a run.

Patience is important in every race, but it is critical at Darlington and the winner of this week’s Goodyear 400 will be the driver who takes the best care of his equipment.

For more than a decade, Darlington has hosted only one race. Last year, with reorganization surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic, they held three. The first race back after the break was a 400-mile affair. Race 2 was considerably shorter at 500 kilometers (or 312 miles) and then the granddaddy of stock car racing, the Southern 500, was part of the playoffs. The cream rose to the top, but there were still plenty of dark horses prancing about the place.

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1. Kyle Larson ****

($11,400 DraftKings | +400)

Larson was last week’s favorite and he was on pace to win the Buschy McBusch 400 until a late-race caution flag jumbled the running order. Larson stayed out while the eventual winner, Kyle Busch pitted for tires. Strategy will not play a key role this week. With a surface like sandpaper, if there is an opportunity to take tires at any stage of the Goodyear 400, drivers will do just that. Larson holds his fate in his own hands.

2. Kevin Harvick *****

($9,600 DraftKings | +700)

The season reset at Darlington last year and that was one of the catalysts for Harvick. He won the Real Heroes 400, finished third three nights later, and took the checkered flag home in the Southern 500. Remarkably, he still has not yet won this season after almost scoring double digits last year. He has a great opportunity to become the 11th different winner in the first 12 races and with 7/1 odds, he has a decent Return on Investment. If you have concerns about the outright win: Harvick’s top-three odds at +200.

3. Denny Hamlin ****

($10,600 DraftKings | +600)

Hamlin won the one Darlington race last year that Harvick did not. He was victorious in the short, Wednesday night affair after finishing fifth in the 400-miler. He did not get off to a great start in the playoffs and finished 13th in the Southern 500, but he has a victory at that distance as well with wins in 2017 and 2010. Hamlin is quintessentially patient and will be part of the lead pack in the final green flag segment of the race.

4. Kyle Busch ****

($9,800 DraftKings | +800)

Busch’s win last week at Kansas was worth 12/1. The oddsmakers obviously believe that victory will shake him out of his funk and that more are on the horizon, so he saw a 400-point decrease in his odds this week. We believe he will run well, but there is some niggling doubt. His Achilles Heel in the past two seasons has been a lack of practice and it is going to take a few races before bettors know if that is still going to slow him.

5. Chase Elliott ***

($9,200 DraftKings | +1000)

Last week we struggled with whether to put Elliott in the top-10. We’re glad we did because he stayed inside that mark for most of the Buschy McBusch 400 and finished fifth. This week we are not certain if he belongs in the top-five, but he was one of the strongest drivers at Darlington last May and would have won the Toyota 500k if he had not been wrecked by Busch. At Kansas, Elliott was priced at $10,400 in the Daily Fantasy game; this week, he is $9,200 and that makes him a much better value.

6. Brad Keselowski ****

($10,000 DraftKings | +900)

Anyone can win on an aero-restricted superspeedway, so we wondered if Keselowski’s gift at Talladega Superspeedway would give him confidence. The answer is a qualified ‘yes’, and a third-place finish at Kansas points the No. 2 team in the right direction. Darlington will be the tiebreaker. He earned back-to-back top-fives earlier this year at Las Vegas Motor Speedway and Phoenix Raceway before slipping outside the top-10 in four straight races. Wait before fully committing.

7. Martin Truex Jr. ***

($10,300 DraftKings | +750)

Darlington has not been Truex’s best track in recent years, but over the course of his career, it hasn’t been too bad. With a career average finish of 11.8, it ranks eighth on his personal chart; two of the tracks ahead of it are the road/oval hybrids at Charlotte and Daytona where the stats are still a little thin. Truex has not had a recent top-five on the Track Too Tough to Tame, but the last time he finished that well, he won the 2016 Southern 500.

8. Erik Jones ****

($8,200 DraftKings | +8000)

Granted, Jones is no longer in Joe Gibbs Racing equipment, but one cannot ignore the fact that he has never finished outside the top-10 at Darlington. Can he put his No. 43 Richard Petty Motorsports Chevrolet in the single digits again this week? We think so, and if he does, 80/1 odds are going to do a lot to beef up the kitty. If you disagree, there are still several great bets to be had, however; Jones’ top-three odds are +1800 and his top-10 odds sit at +235.

9. Christopher Bell **

($8,600 DraftKings | +2500)

In the equation of driver versus car, the debate rages on. This week there will be a little more data to help form an opinion. Bell has not been overly strong at Darlington with a three-race average of 23rd last year. But he climbs into a car that swept the top-10 in six races with Jones behind the wheel. If your betting strategy requires multiple bets with a couple of dark horses, the No. 20 is certainly strong enough to contend. Bell’s top-three odds are set at +650. He shows minus odds for a top-10.

10. Joey Logano ****

($11,100 DraftKings | +1400)

Logano battled food poisoning last week and struggled home to earn his seconds sub-15th-place finish in a row. Momentum has been lost with less. So far this season he is batting .500 in regard to top-10s and has struggled to keep his streaks alive. He won’t start moving up this grid until he gets at least three consecutive single digit results. The good news is that he finished third in last year’s Southern 500 and was sixth in the Toyota 500k.

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