2021 RBC Heritage: Odds, Best Bets, and Longshots

The Masters have come and gone, and what a rush it was! Congrats to Hideki Matsuyama on winning his first major, it was well-deserved. My 75-1 sleeper pick on Will Zalatoris almost paid off huge! Because of the long odds, I was able to hedge out of my position with some Matsuyama come Sunday.

This week we shift our sights onto Harbour Town for the RBC Heritage. The course measures at approximately 7,100 yards for a par 71. When it comes to the gambling odds, the defending champion Webb Simpson is the favorite to win it all at +1100.

Per Rick Gehman’s model, Driving Accuracy is one of the key metrics to look for when trying to profile guys for this weekend. This course has the smallest greens on TOUR, so money approach shots will be just as important.

Betting on golf always seems to come down to the wire on Sundays, which is why I’ve become hooked. So let’s dig in and see if we can pick some winners.

As for my betting picks, nothing groundbreaking here. Aside from digging into the data at the RickRunGood.com database, I try to look for guys that have great course history, provide value, and players that are trending in the right direction coming into the event. 

This week, I’m switching up my style a little. Some studs might be drained mentally and physically from last weekend’s big event, so I’m going with a couple more longshots than I generally tend to play on a weekly basis. I usually go with two big guns and sprinkle in 3-4 long shots. This week I’m taking a chance and going with eight guys with longer odds that I think have a shot.

Viewing Details

2021 RBC Heritage

Dates: April 15-18

Course: Harbour Town in Hilton Head, South Carolina

Watch: GOLF/ CBS

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Best Bets

Picks to win outright

Collin Morikawa +2000

I have a sweet spot for Morikawa since he’s won me a lot of money over the past two years. His putter failed him last weekend, but his strengths should translate perfectly on this track. All the kid does is stripe his irons. It also helps that he leads the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, something that will help him tremendously this week. If the young phenom gets his putter going, this is a course he can dominate.

Matthew Fitzpatrick +2100

Fitz is playing great and is a solid putter, especially on Bermuda grass. He also has two top-15 finishes here in the past three years. He’s 15th in Strokes Gained: Total and 17th in Driving Accuracy, that combo will play out great here. I also love the picture he posted on Twitter today, the key to my heart.

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Longshots

When it comes to longshots, I’m looking for guys who are 25-1 or longer this week. My strategy with longshots in general: if any of them are in contention come Sunday, you will get an opportunity to reassess your positions and live bet to hedge a little with some of the other contenders.

Paul Casey +2600

Casey is another guy that has similar strengths as the aforementioned Morikawa. He is 17th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 18th in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. That combination should put him in contention come Sunday if he can just get his putter going.

Abraham Ancer +3000

This is a guy that has everything I look for when trying to pick an outright. Trending upwards, course history and hits a key metric that has shown to do well here in the past. He was runner-up here just last year, so he has the course history. He ranks 2nd in Driving Accuracy, a key metric to look out for on this track. He also has five top-30 finishes in a row. This can be his chance to break through.

Corey Conners +3000

Talk about a guy trending in the right direction. He comes into this event with three top-10 finishes over his last four events. He’s currently 7th in Driving Accuracy, another big plus point here. He pops off on a ton of models this week, so at 30-1, he is worth the price of admission.

Tommy Fleetwood +5000

Total feel pick here, but I think at 50-1, Fleetwood is definitely worth a dabble. He had a top-25 finish here in 2019, and his iron game is suited well for this track.

Si Woo Kim +5000

Kim is playing consistent golf right now, and is coming off of a 12th place finish at the Masters. Kim lost in a playoff here in 2018, so we know he can put it together on this course. He’s also 22nd in Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green and is striking the ball really well.

Couple of other sleepers I’m sprinkling a little pizza money on are Russell Henley +5000, Brendon Todd +9000, and J.T. Poston at +13000. Good luck!

*Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook. Always shop around for best odds.