NCAAF Week 9 Underdog Pick Of The Week

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• Virginia Tech (3-4) travels to take on Georgia Tech (3-4) in Week 9.

• The Hokies are +4 point (+160 moneyline) underdogs, but BetQL is projecting them to win this game outright (51.4% projected win rate).

• VT coach Justin Fuente has gone 12-2 SU (+10.5 units) vs. passing defenses that allow 8+ yards per pass attempt. Georgia Tech has allowed an average of 8.7 yards per pass attempt which activates this trend.

The Matchup

Virginia Tech (3-4) travels to take on Georgia Tech (3-4) in Week 9. The Hokies are +4 point (+160 moneyline) underdogs, but BetQL is projecting them to win this game outright (51.4% projected win rate).

Interestingly, both of these teams narrowly lost to big-name schools this season. Virginia Tech lost to Notre Dame by the score of 32-29 back on October 9th while Georgia Tech lost at Clemson by the score of 14-8 back on September 18th. Further, both teams beat North Carolina but lost to Pittsburgh, thus making this a confusing contest to bet on if you’re not looking at our projections.

Per BetQL, VT has a B- team grade compared to Georgia Tech’s C+ mark. Further, the Hokies have an offensive edge (B- compared to C) and defensive edge (B+ compared to C). Keep in mind that those ratings take dozens of data points into account.

The Edge

VT coach Justin Fuente has gone 12-2 SU (+10.5 units) vs. passing defenses that allow 8+ yards per pass attempt. Georgia Tech has allowed an average of 8.7 yards per pass attempt which activates this trend.

Oregon transfer Braxton Burmeister has not exactly lit it up through the air for the Hokies this season, completing just 53.6% of his passes for 1,241 yards, seven touchdowns and three interceptions through seven starts. However, he has amassed 226 rushing yards and two touchdowns on the ground and the team has rushed the ball 265 times compared to 193 pass attempts which shows how run-heavy they are. 

It’s also worth mentioning that backup running back Malachi Thomas broke out last week against Syracuse, carrying 21 times for 151 yards and three touchdowns while starter Raheem Blackshear took 10 carries for 78 yards. Despite the loss, Burmeister was able to push the ball down the field when given the chance, as evidenced by the fact that VT receivers caught 10 passes for 177 yards (a 17.7 yard average). Expect the Hokies to try to establish the run, which will set up their play-action attack.

Last week, Georgia Tech allowed Virginia dual-threat QB Brennan Armstrong to go 29-43 for 396 yards, four passing touchdowns and no interceptions while also taking 12 carries for 99 yards and two more scores. For those waiting to see Burmeister’s breakout game, this could be the one, even if he’s not the same caliber of signal-caller or in a similar offense that Armstrong is in.

See BetQL’s full projections for this game and unlock the entire Week 9 slate now!