Vanderbilt at No. 2 Alabama Odds, Prediction for Week 4

Vanderbilt Commodores

Yeah, they are going to lose, but the question is, by how much? Believe it or not, Vandy has actually put up quite a fight so far in 2022. They are 3-1 on the season, already surpassing their season win total after four weeks of play. They beat Northern Illinois last week by 10 points as underdogs, which was a bit surprising to me. Their only loss came to a good Wake Forest team that was ranked 23rd, so they can't be ashamed of that.

The offense has been what has impressed me the most. QB A.J. Swann has been impressive, passing for 452 yards and six touchdowns this season with no interceptions. WR Will Sheppard has been lights-out, with 313 yards and seven TDs to start the campaign.

They are 2-2 ATS this season, but 1-0 as a road underdog, and that was last week against NIU.

No. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide

You can chalk up a win here, but this is a very large number to cover for the Crimson Tide, and one that they actually haven't been able to cover very often. Since these two schools’ first meeting way back in 1907, there’s only been a single instance where a -40.5 number would’ve covered, and that was their last meeting in 2017 when Alabama ripped the Commodores 59-0. However, that was perhaps one of the worst teams in Vanderbilt history, going 1-7 in SEC play that year. This 2022 version of Vandy is far better, and this number is gigantic.

Nick Saban’s squad took all it could handle in their Week 2 matchup against the Texas Longhorns, failing to cover the -20.5 number. In their other games, though, QB Bryce Young and Co. covered two huge numbers this season, as they blew out Utah State, 55-0, as 41.5 favorites in Week 1, and did much of the same this past weekend when they defeated ULM, 63-7, as 49.5 favorites.

They will win this game, but...

Vanderbilt at Alabama Prediction: Commodores +40.5

Vanderbilt will cover. I just think this Commodores team is better than those of seasons past, and I don't see them getting blown out by 41+ points. It only happened once, and it took the worst team in school history to make that happen. Alabama will win this game by a good margin, probably close to 30 points, but I'm willing to take the 40.5, even on the road.