San Diego State at No. 14 Utah Prediction for Week 3
Odds, best bets and analysis for this college football matchup
Matthew Horner - Sep 14, 2022, 7:17pm EDT
San Diego State Aztecs
San Diego State suffered an embarrassing and surprising defeat in Week 1 to the Arizona Wildcats 38-20. They recorded just 232 total yards in their defeat, while Arizona ripped the Aztecs for 461 total yards while averaging 8.5 yards per pass. They were able to bounce back last week with a dominant 38-7 victory over an overmatched Idaho State. Still, they failed to cover the spread once again, which doesn't get them much praise from me. After a horrible defensive effort in the opener, the Aztecs forced a couple of turnovers against the poor Bengals, while their offense racked up 488 total yards.
It was a total bloodbath on the ground, with the Aztecs running the ball 43 times for an insane 380 yards, which is an average of 8.8 yards per carry. Granted, this was Idaho State, but that is still pretty ridiculous. RB Jaylon Armstead had 96 yards on just five carries, while QB Braxton Burmeister ran it himself eight times for 80 yards and a TD. The Bengals had absolutely no answer for their ground assault. Through the air, Burmeister went 15-of-26 for 108 yards and a TD. He needed this performance badly after a disastrous Week 1 line of 5-of-10 for 51 yards, a TD, and an interception.
No. 14 Utah Utes
After their heartbreaking, and boneheaded, loss in Week 1 to the Florida Gators on the road, the Utah Utes bounced back in a big way in Week 2 against in-state rival Southern Utah. It was total annihilation, with Utah winning 73-7 as massive 45.5 home favorites. Utah had 31 first downs and outgained the Thunderbirds 599-85 in total yardage. It really wasn't shocking at all considering Southern Utah was completely out of their depth in this game, but it was a nice bounce back confidence builder for the Utes, who now have to contend with the Aztecs.
Utah will continue to depend on QB Cameron Rising for their offense, who tossed for 2,493 yards, 20 touchdowns, and just five interceptions in 13 games this past season. He was 22-for-32 for 216 yards, a TD, and a horrible interception in that loss at Florida in the opener of the 2022 season. RB Tavio Thomas has 34 carries for 163 yards over the last couple of weeks after rushing for 1,108 yards in 2021, so he's on a decent pace to start the year.
My Prediction
The San Diego State defense is very good, and let's not forget, they beat the Utes last season 33-31 in an upset victory. They should be able to stifle the Utah running game, which will force them to rely on Rising's arm. The spread here is a massive 21.5 points, and with the hook, I will take San Diego State +21.5.
Some trends to note: San Diego State is 6-3 ATS in its last nine games against the Pac-12 Conference and 5-0 ATS in its last five Week 3 contests. Utah is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games, but the Utes have covered the spread only twice in their previous 13 contests played in September.
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