San Antonio's Surprising Defensive Regression Revolves Around This Starter

• The San Antonio Spurs selected point guard Dejounte Murray from the University of Washington with the 29th pick in the 2016 NBA draft. Murray had a breakout sophomore season in the 2017-2018 campaign when he made the all-defensive second team. Murray missed the entire 2018-2019 regular-season after suffering an injury in the preseason. Murray is currently averaging 10.7 points, 4.1 assists, and 1.7 steals per game.

• While Murray remains a very good defensive player, he has regressed. The Spurs defensive rating when Murray is on the court is eight points worse than it was during the 2017-2018 season. Murray’s defensive rating is 15 points worse than his sophomore season as well. The Spurs have the seventh-worst defensive efficiency rating as a whole.

• What has contributed to the decline in Murray’s defensive statistics is that he’s playing a more substantial role in the offense than he did in the 2017-2018 season. The Spurs have expected more offensively from Murray this season. He's averaging a career high in points, assists, and field goal percentage.

• The Spurs are four games behind the Memphis Grizzlies for the eight-seed. They have a challenging road to the postseason (+1300 to make playoffs), per DraftKings.

Defensive Regression

At the end of the 2017-2018 season, Dejounte Murray looked like another late, first-round heist by the San Antonio Spurs. The former Washington Husky product had improved to such a degree that Gregg Popovich felt comfortable starting Murray in the playoffs against the then-defending champion Golden State Warriors. Murray made a name for himself as a defensive stopper. His defensive reputation was so acclaimed that he made the all-defensive second team in just his second campaign. Murray became the youngest player ever to make an all-defensive team.

Unfortunately, a preseason injury sidelined Murray for the entire 2018-2019 season. Murray has not played at the same level defensively this season as he did during his sophomore year. While no opponent looks forward to facing Murray, his defensive metrics have declined significantly. Murray’s defensive rating of 113.8 is over 15 points worse than his defensive rating of 98.7 from the 2017-2018 season. The Spurs defensive rating with Murray on the court is 109.0, eight points worse than their defensive rating of 101.0 with Murray on the court during the 2017-2018 season.

The Spurs have been a hot mess on defense this entire season, as they surrender the seventh-most points per game and have the seventh-worst defensive rating in the league. In the 2017-2018 season, the Spurs gave up fewer points per game than any team.

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Increased Focus On Offense

The decline in Murray’s defensive metrics should not be that much of a surprise considering that the Spurs now expect more from the guard on the offensive end. Murray has improved offensively in nearly every area from his first two seasons. He is averaging a career-high in points, field goal percentage, assists, rebounds, and minutes per game. His field goal and three-point attempts per contest have increased significantly from his first two seasons. Murray has the eighth-best player efficiency rating among Western Conference point guards.

The increased role in the Spurs offense has naturally led to a decline to his defense. Murray played defensively at an elite level in the 2017-2018 season because he could focus exclusively on his defense, as the Spurs did not expect much from him offensively. Now that San Antonio does depend on Murray to make contributions offensively, he can't just preserve all of his energy and effort for the defensive end.

Postseason Streak

San Antonio has made the playoffs and finished with a winning record in every season since they drafted Tim Duncan in 1997. That streak is in jeopardy, as the Spurs only have the 12th-best record in the Western Conference and are one of six teams fighting for the final playoff spot in the West. The Spurs are long shots to make the postseason following LaMarcus Aldridge’s season-ending surgery. San Antonio's quest to continue their 23-year run of consecutive playoff appearances will begin on July 31st against the Sacramento Kings. The Spurs are three-point underdogs, per DraftKings Sportsbook. Think they have what it takes to continue their postseason streak? If so, that +1300 line to make the playoffs is juicy.

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