2024 NBA Playoffs: Series Picks & Predictions For Round 1

2024 NBA Playoffs: Series Picks & Predictions For Round 1

No. 3 Bucks vs. No. 6 Pacers

IND Pacers to win Game 1/MIL Bucks to win series (+400, DraftKings)

Giannis Antetokounmpo (calf) will miss Game 1 at least, and his return by Game 2 or 3 is critical in the Bucks winning this series. The Bucks might have gone 1-4 SU this year against the Pacers, but Giannis dominated Indiana, averaging 42.2 points, 13.0 rebounds and 5.4 assists. 

Although the Pacers dominated the regular-season series against the Bucks, those games came early in the year and a lot has changed since they last met on Jan. 3. 

On Milwaukee’s side, Doc Rivers took over as head coach and altered the Bucks defensive schemes, which clearly weren't working very well against Indiana under former head coach Adrian Griffin. Patrick Beverly also joined the Bucks since their last meeting and is someone who can disrupt (i.e. agitate) Indiana’s guards and put pressure on the perimeter, especially Tyrese Haliburton.  

Indiana’s roster also changed quite a bit since their last meeting, which has altered their style of play. The addition of Pascal Siakam also changed the pace at which the Pacers play, turning them from a team that operated heavily on the perimeter to one that utilizes a more balanced inside-out game. The loss of shooting threats Buddy Hield, via trade, and Bennedict Mathurin, via injury, also played into this change of style. 

No. 4 Cavaliers vs. No. 5 Magic

Series to go 7 Games (+190, DraftKings) OR Magic +1.5 Games (-135, BetMGM)

After an early exit in last year's postseason, the Cavs have a ton of pressure on them coming into their first-round matchup with the Orlando Magic. They split the season series with Orlando but Cleveland was putrid to close out the season, going 12-17 SU and 10-19 ATS, which has me concerned. Much of that downfall was due to injuries with Donovan Mitchell missing quite a bit of time alongside Evan Mobley and Max Strus. Mitchell hasn't looked right since his return and if that doesn't change, I see another early exit for Cleveland.

My biggest concern for the Magic is their inexperience and lack of offensive firepower. They rank No. 22 in offensive rating on the season and No. 24 in points per game (110.5). However, playoff basketball is quite different than the regular season. The game slows down and teams operate in the half-court at a much higher rate. That's where Paolo Banchero could have quite a bit of success in this series because Cleveland doesn't have a great defensive matchup for him.

Speaking of defense, the Magic finished the season No. 3 in defensive rating. What they lack on offense, they make up for on defense. Orlando has Wendell Carter Jr., Jonathan Isaac and Mo Wagner that they can throw on Jarrett Allen and Mobley. The Magic are also No. 4 in rebound percentage (51.5%), which isn't a great sign for the Cavs seeing as that was one of the reasons the Knicks were able to oust them in five games last postseason.

When Cleveland is fully healthy and playing at its best, it's the better team, but with Mitchell's health being a question, I think this series goes the distance at +190 on DraftKings. If you're concerned about this being the first taste of postseason basketball for most of Orlando's roster, and want to play this more conservatively, I'd recommend taking its series spread of +1.5 games at -135 on BetMGM.

No. 2 Nuggets vs. No. 7 Lakers

Nuggets -2.5 Series Spread vs. Lakers (+145, DraftKings)

As a reward for beating the Pelicans in the Play-In Tournament, the Lakers get to face the defending champs in the first round of the Western Conference playoffs. Congrats! This is going to be a short series because Denver is a terrible matchup for L.A. The Nuggets went 3-0 against the Lakers this season and swept their four-game series with them in last year's WCF.

The defensive side of the floor is going to be L.A.'s biggest issue because Austin Reaves and D'Angelo Russell are huge liabilities, yet the Lakers need them on the floor as scorers. If they replace them with a stronger defensive player like Jarred Vanderbilt, who should be back and ready to go for this series, they're going to struggle to keep up with the Nuggets' potent offense. LeBron James and Anthony Davis can only carry this team on both ends of the floor for so long.

Denver is the significantly more talented team and should cruise past L.A. in this series.

No. 3 Timberwolves vs. No. 6 Suns

Suns +1.5 Series Spread vs. Timberwolves (+135, BetMGM)

The Timberwolves are one of the up-and-coming young teams in the West that were really fun to watch this season. They held the best record in the conference for much of the year, but a loss in the final game of the regular season landed them the No. 3 seed. Unfortunately, that pins them up against the same team they lost that final game to, the Phoenix Suns.

The Suns have gotten the best of Minnesota over the last two seasons, going 3-0 this year and 3-1 against them in 2022-23. Phoenix has been a hard team to trust all season because of the injury issues that have plagued Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and Bradley Beal. However, with all three players healthy and able to be on the floor together over the last month, the Suns have been one of the best teams in the league. They finished the season winning seven of their last 10 games and are top-10 in both offensive and defensive ratings since the start of the new year.

Minnesota's style of play also doesn't do it any favors against Phoenix. The Wolves aren't a team that's going to look to push the tempo, ranking 22nd in pace on the season, and that's exactly how the Suns want to play. Phoenix struggles against teams that like to play in transition, sitting 25th in points allowed off turnovers and 16th in fast-break points allowed.

For as good as Anthony Edwards is for Minnesota, he's only beaten the Suns twice in his four-year career. That doesn't give me much confidence when it comes to backing the Wolves, so I'll grab Phoenix to cover the +1.5 series spread at +135 on BetMGM.

No. 2 Knicks vs. No. 76 Sixers

Knicks to Win Series (+100, FanDuel)

Embiid's health is a big question after looking a bit hobbled in Wednesday's Play-In game against the Heat. If Nicolas Batum hadn't gone off with six 3-pointers and Jimmy Butler hadn't tweaked his knee, I don't think the Sixers would have won that game.

One of the keys to this series for New York is to attack Embiid in the pick-and-roll. His conditioning isn’t where it needs to be and the non-stop effort he’ll have to show on the defensive side of the ball will wear him down. Philly played drop coverage against the Heat and Embiid was consistently out of position when defending the PNR.

I also think New York will try and play faster despite being one of the slowest pace teams in the league. In its one meeting with Embiid, it registered eight more possessions than its season average and outscored the Sixers by 29 points with Embiid on the floor, winning the game 128-92.    

Philly likes to play fast and get out in transition, but I’m not sure it’s going to be able to do that quite as much with Embiid in his current form. If the Sixers are forced to slow their tempo, that’s going to play into the hands of the Knicks, who prefer to operate in the half court.

I also love how hard this Knicks team plays night in and night out. Jalen Brunson is playing at an MVP level, Josh Hart doesn’t know what it means to take a possession off and OG Anunoby is a Swiss Army knife on the defensive end. With him in the lineup this season, New York is 20-3 with a net rating of +13.2, slightly better than the Sixers' net rating of +10.5 with Embiid on the floor. 

While the Sixers wouldn’t be a No. 7 seed if Embiid was healthy all season, the Knicks are still going to use the fact that they’re priced as the underdog, despite being the No. 2 seed, as motivation.

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