NBA Player Props: 3 Best Bets for Wednesday, April 14

Today we have a full, 12-game NBA slate that features a couple of fun ESPN matchups. The card gives us plenty of options to choose from for our player prop bets. As for the game of the day, I'll go with Mavericks-Grizzlies as tonight's marquee game. Dallas is a 2.5-point favorite and the total is set to 225.5.

For today’s best NBA bets, player props are a fun way to wager on NBA games even if you don't like a side or total. I like to find matchups that I can exploit or good situations due to injuries. 

Let’s dive into a couple of these scenarios now.

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Danny Green OVER 8.5 points

Green is averaging 12.2 points per game (PPG) over his last nine outings. He has played against the Nets twice this season, and is averaging 10 points against them.

Brooklyn is going to be short handed tonight, as there is a chance all three of their superstars don't play. Defensively, they are struggling statistically. The team ranks 24th in points allowed, 25th in defensive rating, and 22nd in three-pointers allowed. Green should get plenty of good looks, especially from deep.

Game script wise, we should see a lot of points in this one. As long as this game doesn't turn into a blowout, I like Green to go over this number.

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Luka Doncic UNDER 28.5 points

Doncic is averaging 28.3 PPG over his last nine games. He has been his usual, magical self, but has a tough matchup tonight. This number is also a little overinflated due to his hot streak.

Memphis is ranked 1st in steals, 7th in defensive rating and 13th in points allowed. The last time these two teams played, he went for 21 points. I also watched the Grizzlies lockdown Zach LaVine recently. They swarm, are tough, and have a lot of length and depth to throw at their opponent's best players.

I envision this one to be a low scoring, grinder type game, so I'll take the under on Doncic here.

Jonas Valančiūnas OVER 13.5 rebounds

He comes into this matchup averaging 12.7 rebounds per game on the year, third best in the NBA. That number has gone up to 13.4 over his last ten games.

As stated above, I just saw the Grizzlies play the Bulls, and was impressed. I've watched them a lot this season, but they looked grittier on defense in that game. As a team, they are relentless, with Valančiūnas leading the way. He doesn't stop attacking the glass and I like the matchup here, especially at + odds. Dallas is 18th in rebounds allowed coming into tonight.

This is a high number, but he has gone over it in three straight games. I anticipate a back and forth battle tonight, which should get him plenty of opportunities to clean up on the glass on both ends. At + odds, it's worth the risk.

BetQL Model Play of the Day

BetQL has a 5-star play tonight on the Warriors-Thunder game. The model is liking the Thunder at this number. OKC should be 8.5-point dogs via the model's projections, which is a 2.5-point difference from the current line. So, there is some value on them tonight.

You can check out all of BetQL's best NBA bets here.