Memphis Grizzlies Have Terrific Chance To Earn Playoff Spot

• The Memphis Grizzlies will resume the NBA regular-season with a 3.5-game edge for the eight-seed

• Five teams that are outside the playoff bubble have been invited back to fight for a playoff spot in the Western Conference

• If a team comes within four games of the eight-seed, then a play-in tournament (double-elimination for top record) will determine the playoff seed

• The Grizzlies are -150 favorites to hold the eighth-seed, per DraftKings.

Jumbled Standings In The West

The Memphis Grizzlies will enter the resumption of the 2019-20 NBA season in eighth-place in the Western Conference standings with a 32-33 record. They own a 3.5-game lead over the Portland Trail Blazers (29-37), the New Orleans Pelicans (28-36) and the Sacramento Kings (28-36), and hold a four-game edge over the San Antonio Spurs (27-36). In other words, they have a good shot to reach the playoffs in this new, 22-team tournament.

Despite performing above expectations during most of the season, the Grizzlies are not expected to crash down to earth after the league’s hiatus of more than four months. If anything, they should be able to hold down that spot and reach the postseason for the first time since the 2016-17 season.

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Statistical Breakdown

The basic stats show the Grizzlies have a commanding lead for the eight-seed, as they would need to lose a minimum of four games - while teams such as the Pelicans and the Blazers would need to win at least four to be in a position of danger. For what it’s worth, Memphis currently sits 13th overall in points per game, averaging 112.6 points per contest. The Pelicans rank fourth (116.2) and the Blazers rank eighth (113.6). Still, the Grizzlies sit as the ninth-best offense in the Conference.

The best advantage they have, however, lies on the opposite end of the court. Memphis allows just 113.7 points per game, good for 20th in the league. The Blazers (26th, 115.2) and the Pelicans (27th, 117.0) have bigger issues defensively. Portland should improve with the return of Jusuf Nurkic, but he is not going to fix the team’s defensive problems on his own.

Why Memphis Is A Strong Bet To Hold The Eight-Seed

Taking into account more advanced stats, we can see the Simple Rating System (SRS) from Basketball Reference provides a clear projection of what teams have done this season based on their average point differential and strength of schedule. The Grizzlies are slightly below average at -1.05, but they sit ahead of the Blazers (-1.11), the Spurs (-1.19) and the Kings (-1.44). Out of the teams chasing Memphis, only the Pelicans have an above-average rating (0.30).

Memphis, led by rookie sensation Ja Morant (17.6 points and 6.9 assists per game), has a great chance to return to the postseason with a core of young players including Dillon Brooks (career-high 15.7 PPG in 2019-20), Brandon Clarke (20.0 points, 9.7 boards, 2.4 assists and 1.4 blocks per 36 minutes) and Jaren Jackson Jr. (16.9 PPG), as well as veteran Jonas Valanciunas (14.9 points and 11.2 rebounds per tilt).

Memphis has done enough this season to deserve a playoff berth. The stats back them up and barring an unexpected collapse, they are a strong bet to reach the postseason in 2019-20.

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