Phillies-Astros World Series Game 1 Predictions & Player Props

Phillies-Astros World Series Game 1 Predictions & Player Props

It’s been a long layoff for both teams, but Game 1 of the 2022 World Series is finally upon us. The delay between the end of the two Championship Series and the start of the World Series doesn’t make it particularly easy for bettors to forecast what’s going to happen, but let’s do a little digging and find the best bets for Game 1 on Friday night.

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PICK: Astros ML

Heading into the World Series, it’s hard to bet anything but the Astros winning. They’ve gone a perfect 7-0 in the postseason, giving them a nine-game winning streak dating back to when they beat the Phillies in their final two regular-season games. Including the playoffs, the Astros are now 59-26 (.694) at home this season. While the oddsmakers are leaning toward the Astros at -170, the BetQL model goes even further, giving them a moneyline of -181 with a 64% chance of winning.

PICK: Over 6.5 Runs

One would think that pitching would dominate Game 1 of the World Series, but perhaps not enough to keep the total runs under 6.5 runs. Playoffs or not, that’s a low number for a baseball game and doesn’t leave much margin for error for anyone taking the under.

Granted, the Astros are the best team in baseball at staying under the run total, going 62-98-9 O/U this year. Plus, only two of Houston’s seven playoff games have ended with more than 6.5 runs. But the Phillies are on the opposite end of the spectrum, as seven of their 11 playoff games have ended with at least seven runs. They were also the second-best team in baseball at hitting the over in 2022, going 89-79-5 O/U. They were even 45-42 O/U on the road this season, so the Phillies don’t need to be at home to play a high-scoring game, giving an edge to the over in this game.

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PICKS: Aaron Nola 5+ Strikeouts and Justin Verlander 6+ Strikeouts (+125, DraftKings)

Of course, even if there are more than a handful of runs scored in this game, that doesn’t mean both starting pitchers can’t collect some strikeouts. Given the layoff for both teams, hitters could be a little rusty, leading to a lot of strikeouts during the early innings. 

With Nola, he struck out nine over 6.2 scoreless innings when he faced the Astros earlier this month. He’s struck out exactly six batters in each of his three playoff starts and has struck out at least five batters in 16 of his last 17 starts dating back to the middle of July. Plus, Houston’s entire roster has just six hits in 46 career at-bats against Nola with 17 strikeouts. That means there are several trends pointing to five strikeouts being the absolute minimum for Nola on Friday barring a disastrous outing.

With Verlander, it’s safe to go up to a minimum of six strikeouts. In just five scoreless and hitless innings against the Philadelphia lineup earlier this month, he struck out 10. He’s struck out at least six batters in six of his last eight starts, including 11 strikeouts against the Yankees in his last start, bouncing back from a rough outing against the Mariners in the ALDS. Much like Nola, the entire Philadelphia roster has 38 career at-bats against Verlander, striking out 15 times in those 38 at-bats.

PICKS: Jose Altuve and Jean Segura to Record a Hit (+135, DraftKings)

Let’s call this two-leg parlay the second baseman special. Admittedly, Altuve has had a rough October, going 3-for-32 (.094) during the playoffs. But all three of those hits came in Games 3 and 4 of the ALCS. He was 3-for-9 with a double in those two games, so he should be coming out of his slump and in better shape heading into the World Series. He’s also 2-for-5 with a double against Nola, so he’s one of the few Houston hitters who won’t be secretly waiting for the Phillies to go to their bullpen.

Meanwhile, Segura is an easy hitter to overlook in the Philadelphia lineup because he hasn’t hit a home run in the playoffs. But he’s 9-for-35 (.257) with two doubles during the playoffs, which means he has the second-best batting average of any Philly regular during the postseason behind Bryce Harper’s .419 average. He also has more at-bats against Verlander than anyone else on the Phillies. In those at-bats, he’s 4-for-14 with a double and a home run, so there is value in thinking Segura can get a hit for the Phillies on Friday.

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