Red Sox Season Depends On Production From Nathan Eovaldi

• While their lineup remains formidable and capable of scoring runs, the Boston Red Sox need Nathan Eovaldi to have his best season if they’re going to remain competitive in the AL East.

• Boston’s rotation has been decimated since last season, leaving Eovaldi to be the team’s ace.

• Eovaldi was terrific when Boston acquired him in 2018 from the Tampa Bay Rays. He logged a 3.33 ERA over 12 appearances (11 starts) and struck out 48 batters over 54 innings of work.

• Eovaldi is +10000 to take home AL Cy Young Award honors, per DraftKings Sportsbook.

An Obliterated Rotation

Boston’s starting rotation looks a lot different heading into 2020 than it did a year ago. David Price has been traded, while Chris Sale will miss the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery. Even the back-end of the rotation looks different with Rick Porcello, Hector Velazquez, and Andrew Cashner elsewhere. That leaves Nathan Eovaldi and Eduardo Rodriguez forced to make the transition from complementary starters to leaders of the rotation.

Rodriguez was outstanding last season, winning 19 games and pitching to a 3.81 ERA, but he tested positive for COVID-19. That leaves the burden of being Boston’s ace squarely on Eovaldi’s shoulders. Boston will look for an improved campaign from the flamethrowing righty after he logged a 5.99 ERA over 23 appearances last season.

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Ups And Downs

There should be no doubt that Eovaldi has the stuff to be a frontline starter. There have been times during his career when he has been dominant. As recently as 2018, Eovaldi was 3-3 with a 3.33 ERA after the Red Sox acquired him in a mid-season trade from the Tampa Bay Rays. The righty was terrific in 2018 with the two clubs, logging a career-best 4.4 percent walk rate. His 32.9 percent hard hit rate was also stellar.

There has also been a dark side to Eovaldi’s career when he has struggled with injuries, leading to ineffectiveness on the mound. That was the story last year when he underwent elbow surgery. Even after he returned, Eovaldi posted a 5.98 ERA, despite initially returning as a reliever. The season could be a disaster for Boston if Eovaldi registers similar numbers this year. For what it's worth, the starter racked up his highest strikeout rate (23.2 percent) in 2019, so there are some positives to take from his most recent campaign.

Cy Young Long Shot?

With a 60-game season, every team has a small margin for error. It’s even smaller for the Red Sox, who have to play catch up with the New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays. The two AL East juggernauts both made the postseason last year. A few bad starts from the de-facto ace could be all it takes for Boston to fall behind New York and Tampa Bay for the AL East crown. At +200 to make the postseason, per DraftKings Sportsbook, you're probably best saving your bet for something more intriguing.

With Eovaldi taking on the role of ace this season, the Red Sox need him to be nearly perfect like he was in 2018. They don’t have enough depth in their rotation or bullpen for him to be anything short of brilliant. Despite Eovaldi's health concerns, a shortened season could really aid his efforts. We have seen the 30-year-old string together 10 or more stellar outings in the past, and a full season would amount to about 12 starts. At +10000 to win the AL Cy Young Award, Eovaldi is definitely a massive long shot. Stranger things have happened and he'll enjoy pitching behind a solid defense and incredible offense.

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