MLB Play of the Day for Tuesday, May 18: St. Louis Cardinals-Pittsburgh Pirates

Which side is the BetQL Model betting

Reed Wallach - May 18, 2021, 10:19am EDT

St. Louis Cardinals (-130, 7.5) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - 7:40 PM EST

While the total is low, the BetQL Model is siding with the under 7.5 runs, making it a ⭐⭐⭐⭐ play.

The Pirates offense is one of the worst in baseball, 28th in weighted runs created +, but they have a rising pitching prospect that should be able to keep a lid on the average Cardinals offense.

JT Brubaker will be making his eighth start for Pittsburgh and has been stellar in 2021. He has a 2.58 ERA on the year, anchored by a low walk rate and a ground ball rate over 53%.

The Cards lineup are generating a ton of ground balls on the year, which are going to play right into Brubaker’s strength of ground ball contact. What has plagued the Pirates pitcher is that a lot of his fly balls are leaving the park. Brubaker has an alarmingly high 21.7% fly ball to home run rate, meaning that when the ball is in the air, it’s going deep.

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However, with suspect conditions in St. Louis -- overcast and wind blowing in at over 15 miles per hour -- and a team that is prone to keeping the ball on the ground, Brubaker should be able to find success on the mound.

St. Louis will send John Gant out to limit the weak Pittsburgh offense. While Gant’s number may be a bit overblown, he has thrived against the Pirates in the past.

He has limited Pirates hitters to a .220 batting average over 53 plate appearances. The Cards pitcher is going to have to limit his walk rate, he is walking more than seven batters per nine innings, but the Pirates inability to generate runs is going to keep this game low scoring throughout.

The total is low for a reason, take the under.

Pick: Under 7.5