Game Time: Thursday, 10/14, 9:07 p.m. EST at Oracle Park in San Francisco
Moneyline: Dodgers (-110), Giants (-110)
Spread: Dodgers (+1.5), Giants (-1.5)
Total: Over/Under 6.5
The Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants will play Game 5 of their NLDS on Thursday at 9:07 p.m. EST at Oracle Park in San Francisco.
Corey Knebel will start for the Dodgers, presumably as the "opener" for Julio Urias, with Logan Webb getting the start for the Giants.
The Giants (-1.5) are favorites on the run line and the moneylines are both set at -110. The O/U on this total is 6.5 runs.
This NLDS is tied 2-2 going into this pivotal Game 5, with the Dodgers coming off a 7-2 win over the Giants on Tuesday.
The BetQL Model sees 4-star value on going under the total of 7 runs and projects a total of 6.5 runs. Sharps are also on the under; 57 percent of tickets are on the under, and those bets account for 87 percent of the money. That indicates a pro money advantage of 30 percent on the under.
It's also worth noting that Webb (11-3, 3.03 ERA) allowed just five runs in 23.2 innings across four starts against the Dodgers this season. Meanwhile, Urias (20-3, 2.96 ERA), who is expected to get the bulk of the innings for L.A. tonight, has allowed two runs or less in five of his six starts against the Dodgers this season. Both bullpens are stingy, too, so expect another low-scoring game tonight.
The BetQL Model is 26-19-1 (58 percent) on total bets in Webb's starts (and it has been even better on total bets in Urias' starts), so trust the Model on the under.
There are other valuable bets in this contest, including a 3-star value, so join BetQL to see all of today's best bets!
In a surprise move by manager Dave Roberts, the Dodgers will start Knebel as the presumed "opener" for Urias, who is still expected to pitch the bulk of the innings tonight.
The Dodgers are still missing Max Muncy, who is out and doing no baseball activities yet after suffering an elbow injury.
The Dodgers hit the under 53.2 percent of the time this season. In their last five games, the Dodgers are 3-2 straight up, 3-2 ATS and 2-3 on the O/U. Los Angeles is averaging 5.07 runs per game and 3.43 opponent runs per game, though scoring has been scarce on both side in this series.
The San Francisco Giants are 55-28 at home this season and have a better than 55-percent chance of winning based on 10,000 game simulations generated by AccuScore.
The Giants went under the total 52.5 percent of the time this season. They are 3-2 in their last five games, 3-2 ATS and 3-2 on the O/U. As the favorite, San Francisco is 4-1 straight up, 2-3 ATS and 2-3 on the O/U. The Giants are averaging 4.92 runs per game and 3.65 opponent runs per game.
Brandon Belt has been on the 10-day IL with a thumb injury and it is still unknown if he will return this postseason.