Contrarian Bet Of The MLB Slate (7/19/19)

Oakland Athletics (55-42, +115) @ Minnesota Twins (59-36), 8:10 pm ET

Chris Bassitt (6-4, 3.98 ERA) vs. Jake Odorizzi (11-4, 3.06 ERA)

Pick: Athletics

Analysis: The Minnesota Twins have been consistently ahead of the AL Central pack in 2019. They took off early and separated themselves by a large sum over the first two months. However, they seem to be feeling the pressure as the talented Cleveland Indians nip at their heels and now have closed the gap to just four games. The Twins have received quality pitching this season, albeit surprising. Jake Odorizzi has been a positive pitching source for a portion of the season, but the tables have recently turned on him.

The 29-year-old Odorizzi dazzled through early June, but has seen his ERA rise from 1.92 to 3.06 over his last five starts. The long-balls have finally become an issue with teams jacking seven homers off of him over his last 23 2/3 innings. He has been fortunate with a .263 BABIP, but things seem to be evening out as that number begins to climb. The 10 free passes he has allowed hasn’t helped, either. Command has been an issue for the Twins pitcher over two starts in July, throwing just 100 of 171 pitches for strikes. The Oakland Athletics have taken the fourth most walks in the AL over the month and if Odorizzi has a short outing, then their marginal bullpen will have to make do.

The bad news for Odorizzi continues. He owns a hard hit rate of 42.3 percent. He faced the Athletics offense just before the All-Star break in Oakland and suffered a terrible beatdown, allowing six runs (five earned) over just three innings. Odorizzi needed 82 pitches to get nine outs in the contest. Chris Herrmann and Matt Olson smacked homers off the Minnesota veteran in their last meeting, and Khris Davis has two homers in his lifetime over 16 at-bats against him.

The Oakland A’s saw their six-game winning streak evaporate after a loss last night to the Twins. They have been on a fiery streak, winning 12 of 15, and quietly find themselves in a race with the Houston Astros for the AL West lead. The Oakland pitching staff has been dominant over the month, owning an ERA of 2.89, ranking them third in the AL over that span.

Chris Bassitt has yet to face the Minnesota offense this season, but he owned them in 2018. The Oakland pitcher kept them in check, holding them to a 5-for-30 outing with just two extra-base hits and one run. The Twins offense has been one of the very best in baseball, but they rank near the bottom of the pack in the NL since the All-Star break, scoring a measly 26 runs over their last six games.

Bassitt has done a great job keeping the ball in the yard with a ground ball rate of 43.2 percent. The 11 round-trippers he has allowed over 83 2/3 innings is completely acceptable with how many balls are flying out of ball parks this season. Bassitt will face a heavy left-handed order due to switch hitters, but his 24.5 percent strikeout rate against lefties is impressive. The Oakland bullpen has continued their supreme production from last season and should back the starter more instances than not. It also helps that the A’s offense is tied for third in the AL in runs per game during July. The A’s have managed to win four of Bassitt’s last five outings.

What more can we say? Northern California is loving baseball right now.