MLB Contrarian Bet Of The Slate (7/20/19)

San Diego Padres (46-51, +110) @ Chicago Cubs (53-44), 2:20 pm ET

Joey Lucchesi (7-4, 3.92 ERA) vs. Jose Quintana (7-7, 4.21 ERA)

Pick: Padres

Analysis: The San Diego Padres have done their best to remain in the conversation as a potential wildcard contender, but they’ve seemingly taken a backseat in July, going 4-10 over the month. They’re still in the race, but they better turn that winning percentage around in a hurry if they’re going to have a real chance. San Diego needs their offense to kick it into gear and be the force that everyone thought they had the potential to be. Thankfully, the Padres offense will face a lefty today. If they could have it their way, they’d face a pitcher of the left-handed variety every day.

The Friars will take on Jose Quintana in Chicago against the Cubs today. The good news is that the Padres own a respectable .758 OPS against southpaws, which isn’t the only statistic that proves they thrive off lefties. They also own one of the best at-bat/home run ratios in the NL, averaging a round-tripper every 20.7 at-bats. Their .382 wOBA and 44.7 percent hard hit rate tend to jump off the stat sheet and they also have a solid ISO of .284 against that handedness. The majority of regulars in the Padres lineup happen to be right-handed, besides Eric Hosmer.

Quintana will make his 20th start of the season. He has been a roller-coaster ride with ups and downs all over his game log. He has allowed 14 runs over his last 23 1/3 innings (four starts) and allowed three long-balls. It’s also worth mentioning that he hasn’t been at the top of his game during daytime starts. His 5.06 ERA over nine day starts is somewhat inconspicuous. Right-handed bats have accounted for 11 of the 13 homers that Quintana has allowed. This doesn’t appear to be a great matchup for the Chicago starting pitcher.

Joey Lucchesi has had some uncomfortable outings against top notch offenses of late. He has faced the Atlanta Braves, Los Angeles Dodgers, and Milwaukee Brewers in three of his last five games, and he combined to allow just five runs over 18 1/3 innings. It’s pretty impressive considering those teams all rank inside the top seven in OPS in the NL against lefties. The Cubs rank 11th in the same category.

Lucchesi will have more than a fair opportunity with a Chicago offense that has a strikeout rate of 24.5 percent against lefties. If he can avoid facing Javier Baez or Khris Bryant with runners on base, then he should be very successful against the rest of the lineup that has an ISO well under .200 against southpaws. Lucchesi could be a nuisance for Chicago’s hottest hitter. Anthony Rizzo is 17-for-35 over his last 10 games, but is hitting just .205 with four homers over 73 at-bats against lefties this season. Lucchesi owns a large 60.7 percent ground ball rate against left-handed bats and it doesn’t hurt to keep the ball on the ground in 2019.

San Diego has had a few bats shine after the All-Star break. Manny Machado is 10-for-30 with four long-balls and six RBI and Manuel Margot is 8-for-22 with four extra-base hits. They have a couple of lefty killers in Machado and Hunter Renfroe. Machado owns a .381 average with eight homers over just 63 at-bats. It’s a shame that he doesn’t face more of them, as he owns a .555 wOBA and .467 ISO. Renfroe has also crushed eight bombs over 64 at-bats against southpaws. This game appears to be lining up in the Padres favor with the offense gaining an edge. They will look to continue enjoying their uptick in offensive production on the road this season.