Get excited, baseball fans, because Friday marks the start of the final weekend in June. The weekend schedule also includes some fascinating matchups, including five series between teams with winning records, so there could be some potential playoff previews. Get a jump on the weekend by looking at some of the top bets from the BetQL model and key betting trends for each of Friday’s 15 games.
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Mariners-Angels Under 9.5 Runs ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Less than a week after wrapping up a five-game series against one another, the Mariners and Angels are ready to start another series. When it comes to scoring runs, both of these teams are on the lower end of the spectrum, especially since the Angels have endured a disastrous month, losing Anthony Rendon to a season-ending injury in the process. That is surely contributing to the BetQL model projecting fewer than 9.5 runs being scored, making this a five-star pick.
It’s worth noting that all five games these teams played against one another last week featured fewer than nine total runs. In fact, those five games averaged a total of five runs per game with just one of those games featuring more than six runs, which makes 9.5 runs rather ambitious. With Chris Flexen and Michael Lorenzen getting the start, both teams have a solid and reliable starting pitcher on the mound. That should make a high-scoring game far less likely, giving a ton of value to the under on 9.5 runs.
Nick Pivetta O 5.5 Ks at the Guardians (+125, DraftKings)
Pivetta hit this over in three of his last four starts with 10, 11 and 7 strikeouts in those starts. He’s gone over this total in six of his 14 starts so far. Pivetta has 82 total strikeouts this season and 49 in his last seven starts. Yes, the Guardians have the fewest team total strikeouts in the league with 456, but with Pivetta hitting this over by so much lately and the momentum he has when it comes to hitting this over, I see him doing it again here. -- Lucy Burdge
The Marlins are feeling good after sweeping the Rockies earlier this week, improving their record to 14-7 when they are favored at home. But the Mets have held their own as a road underdog, going 8-9. They have also won nine straight games against their division rivals following a loss and will be eager to get back on track after losing two games in Houston earlier this week.
The Yankees stormed back with four runs in the bottom of the 9th on Thursday to take the series opener 7-6, extending their home winning streak to 15 games. Despite the loss, the Astros are 26-10 under Dusty Baker against teams that average 4.9 runs per game or more. For the record, the Yankees are averaging 5.1 runs per game.
These are two of the hottest teams in baseball right now with the Guardians going 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games while the Red Sox are 8-2 SU up in their last 10 games. The Guardians are also one of just six teams in the majors that’s .500 or better (5-5) SU when underdogs at home. Of course, Boston is 9-3 SU as a road favorite.
After a stretch of 11 losses in 12 games, the Pirates have won four of their last five games to get back on track. Of course, they still have the third-lowest batting average in the majors at .221. Meanwhile, Kevin Cash is 45-20 (.692) during his time with the Rays when facing National League opponents hitting .245 or worse.
Not only is this a rematch of the NLCS in each of the last two years but it’s also Freddie Freeman’s Atlanta homecoming. While the Braves have had an excellent June, they are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven games. Atlanta is also just 1-2 this year as a home underdog. Oddly enough, the underdog has won in each of the last five games the Dodgers have visited Truist Park.
After sweeping a two-game set from the Phillies earlier this week, the Rangers have now won six straight games against NL East opponents. The Nationals have also lost nine of their last 11 games and four of their last five road games, so they aren’t well set up to stop that streak.
Even though they didn’t allow a hit until the 8th inning on Thursday, the A’s still couldn’t pick up a win. The good news is that the Royals are also among the worst teams in baseball, going 12-21 at home, which is even worse than Oakland’s 15-20 road record.
Despite being tied for first place, the Twins have fallen on hard times, losing four straight games ATS. While they are 18-7 (.720) SU as home favorites this year, the Twins have also lost six straight games that have followed a win when they’ve been favored.
The Orioles took the series opener on Thursday, adding to their MLB-best record ATS of 44-27 (.620). While Michael Kopech has had a strong season, the White Sox are just 5-7 in his starts. Of course, he’s allowed just four home runs in 12 starts this year and Baltimore is 17-47 (.266) under Brandon Hyde against starters who give up 0.5 home runs per start or less.
The Brewers are in unfamiliar territory because they’ve only been home underdogs twice this season, losing both of those games. Of course, the Blue Jays are a modest 13-9 (.591) when favored on the road this year. That being said, while Toronto lost his last start, the Jays are 9-4 when Alek Manoah starts, including wins in five of his last six starts.
In general, the Cubs have been a little better on the road this year compared to their disastrous home record. Of course, the Cubs haven’t been doing a lot of winning anywhere lately, winning just three of their last 17 games. Plus, Kyle Hendricks isn’t the stopper he used to be, as Chicago has lost four of his last five starts.
The Angels have been beyond horrible over the past month, yet they managed to win four of five games against the Mariners last weekend. The Los Angeles pitching staff has also remained solid for most of the season, allowing just 4.1 runs per game. Meanwhile, the Mariners are just 18-31 (.367) against teams that allow 4.4 runs per game or less.
Detroit is last in the majors in home runs, hitting just 38 long balls in 69 games this year. That’s meaningful because the Diamondbacks are 16-6 under Torey Lovullo against teams that average .75 home runs per game or less.
While the Padres took a loss on Thursday, they are the fifth-best team in the majors at bouncing back from a loss at 18-9 (.667). On the other hand, Aaron Nola has hit his stride, allowing just two runs over his last 23 innings. More importantly, the Phillies have won his last five starts.
The Reds have a laundry list of problems given their seven-game losing streak. That includes the highest bullpen ERA in the majors at 5.27. That could spell trouble against the Giants, who are 63-19 (.768) under Gabe Kapler against teams with a bullpen ERA of 4.70 or higher.