MLB Playbook: Betting Lines, Odds & Picks for Wednesday, May 18

MLB Betting Playbook for Wednesday

There is a full schedule of 15 MLB games today, including a great mix of day games and evening games. But before the action gets underway, make sure you get the latest projections from the BetQL model, as well as key betting trends below.

One trend to note is that the BetQL MLB model's hit streak continues. It has gone 86-47 (65%) on all MLB picks in the past three days alone, for a total return of $2,196 on $100 bets! And it's been consistent across all bet types in that span: run line 17-11 (61%, $622); moneyline 19-9 (68%, $236); totals 16-9 (64%, $489); and even 5-inning moneylines 17-7 (71%, $433). BetQL subscribers can see more betting trends and all of our best bets with star ratings for every game. Sign up for a BetQL Day Pass and see our best bets across all sports!

Odds in this article are subject to change. Check the latest MLB betting lines here: Latest MLB Odds | Latest Over/Under | Expert MLB picks

MLB BEST BET

Yankees -270 ML at Orioles ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

When the BetQL model has been so successful picking on the Orioles, why ruin a good thing? The Yankees have already taken the first two games of their series in Baltimore, so there’s no reason to go against the Bronx Bombers now. After all, we’re talking about a team that’s 12-3 in May whereas the Orioles have lost five in a row. Not only are the oddsmakers giving the Yankees a -270 moneyline but the BetQL model views them at -466 with a better than 82% chance of winning on Wednesday.

The Yankees will also have ace Gerrit Cole taking the mound on Wednesday. While Cole may have had an uneven start to the season, he seems to have settled in. Also, the Yankees have won his last five starts. Cole will also be facing a Baltimore lineup that’s averaging just 3.2 runs per game. Meanwhile, the Yankees have scored at least five runs in seven of their last eight games, so with a little run support, Cole shouldn’t have much of a problem leading the Yankees to another win.

MORE: SEE THE BETQL STAFF'S BEST MLB BETS TODAY

TOP PLAYER PROP

Giancarlo Stanton Over 1.5 Total Bases (+120 at DraftKings)

Stanton is always a solid bet to hit this over, but he's getting a little extra value here compared to other books and I like him extra against Baltimore's Jordan Lyles. Stanton is 7-for-15 with two doubles and a homer, while slashing .467/.471/.800 in his career against Lyles. I'd also take a look at Stanton's RBI market (O 0.5 +125 at DK) and maybe even HR (+400 at DK). -- Brad Pinkerton

MORE: SEE TODAY’S TOP MLB PLAYER PROPS

TODAY'S MLB GAMES & BETTING TRENDS

The Brewers won in a shutout on Monday, while the Braves returned the favor on Tuesday, setting up a rubber match on Wednesday with just four total runs being scored so far in this series. Those results have defied season-long trends, as both the Braves and Brewers are among the top eight teams in MLB at hitting the over. In fact, Atlanta’s last six day games against National League opponents have hit the over.

This is the rubber match of a three-game series after the Rays scored an emphatic 8-1 win on Tuesday. Unfortunately for the Tigers, they have lost seven straight games that have followed a road loss and are just 4-11 SU on the road this year.

In the last 10 days, the Giants are 5-0 against the Rockies, outscoring Colorado 41-21 in those five games. Even though the struggling Rockies still have a winning record at home this year, the Giants are 10-2 SU as road favorites and 6-1 in Logan Webb’s starts, including four in a row.

The rubber match of this series comes after just 11 total runs have been scored over the first two games. That makes sense because the Twins and Athletics are a combined 26-42-8 O/U this year, hitting the under 55% of the time.

The Dodgers appear to be back on track after sweeping Tuesday’s doubleheader against the Diamondbacks. They are also massive favorites in Wednesday’s series finale and are 51-26 (.662) SU under Dave Roberts when they have a moneyline between -250 and -330 at home.

The Reds won the first battle of Ohio in extra innings on Tuesday and have a chance to sweep the two-game set with a win in Cleveland on Wednesday. But despite winning seven of their last 11 games, the Reds are playing with fire with a bullpen ERA of 4.97, which is the second-worst in the majors. Over the last two years, Cleveland is 27-12 against teams with a bullpen ERA of 4.70 or higher.

The Astros must have been mad about losing on Monday because they thrashed the Red Sox 13-4 on Tuesday night, setting up the rubber match on Wednesday. With the win, Houston is 13-3 in May. The Astros are also 20-8 SU when favored this season, including 13 straight wins when favored against American League opponents. 

The Marlins could be back in the ascendency, winning four of their last six with a chance to sweep the Nats on Wednesday. Miami’s pitching has held Washington to three runs on 12 hits over the first two games of the series, including no home runs. Under Dave Martinez, the Nationals are just 21-40 following back-to-back games with no homers.

After a 3-0 win in the series opener on Tuesday, the Padres are averaging six runs per game over their last six games. Meanwhile, the Phillies have lost two in a row after playing so well last week. Also, Philadelphia is just 2-4 this year when Zack Wheeler starts.

While the Yankees failed to cover in Tuesday’s win over the Orioles, they are 13-5 SU on the road this year and 11-5 SU when they are favored on the road.

The Blue Jays are going for the sweep on Wednesday, as the Mariners continue to struggle in the month of May. In fact, the Mariners have now lost 10 straight night games that have followed a road loss.

These teams split a doubleheader on Tuesday with the Cardinals winning the nightcap. That could be good news for the Mets, who are 12-1 when coming off a loss this year. However, they have lost Max Scherzer’s also two starts after winning each of his first five.

Look at the Cubs, who have won four in a row, which is tied for the longest active winning streak in the majors. They are going for the sweep of Pittsburgh on Wednesday with the Pirates failing to score a single run over the first two games of the series. To make matters worse, the Pirates are 1-6 this year when Mitch Keller starts.

Surprisingly, it’s the Rangers who are going for the sweep of the Angels on Wednesday. However, dating back to last year, the Rangers have lost 13 straight games against American League opponents played on Wednesday. While they beat the Phillies earlier this month, they are otherwise 1-3 on Wednesdays this year.

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These teams split a doubleheader on Tuesday with just six total runs being scored over the two games. That means Kansas City’s last nine games against division rivals have hit the under. On top of that, the White Sox are 14-21-1 O/U this year, hitting the under 58% of the time.

MORE: SEE ALL OF BETQL’S BEST MLB BETS!

BetQL subscribers can see more betting trends and all of our best bets with star ratings for every game. Sign up for a BetQL Day Pass and see our best bets across all sports!