MLB Betting Guide: July 18, 2019

Some teams will enjoy a relaxing travel day, but there are 13 games (including a doubleheader) on Thursday’s MLB slate. Let’s dive in. 

Teams To Wager On

Tampa Bay Rays (56-41, -105) @ New York Yankees (60-33) 7:05 pm ET

Charlie Morton (11-2, 2.35 ERA) vs. Bullpen (3.93 ERA)

(Game Two of Double-Header)

Pick: Rays

Analysis: The New York Yankees have scored a piddly 21 runs over their last five games. They’re enduring one of the few lulls they’ve had all season. J.A. Happ has been pushed back to Friday and the Yankees have announced that they’ll use a bullpen approach for the game. The Tampa Bay Rays offense has scored 41 runs in total over the last six games.

Charlie Morton is holding righties to a .182 batting average and a .495 OPS in 2019, and the New York offense is predominantly right-handed. The Yankees lineup is 9-for-39 (.231) off Morton with 16 strikeouts. The sinker-baller faced the Yankees in Tampa two weeks ago, where he struck out 10 over 5 2/3 innings, allowing one run off a solo homer in a winnings effort. Morton has kept the ball on the ground, limiting opponents to just nine homers over 118 2/3 innings.

Los Angeles Dodgers (-115) @ Philadelphia Phillies, 12:35 pm ET

Ross Stripling (4-3, 3.65 ERA) vs. Aaron Nola (8-2, 3.63 ERA)

Pick: Phillies

Analysis: Ross Stripling will make his fifth-consecutive start after Rich Hill hit the IL on June 20th. He has completed five innings just once since returning to the rotation and has given up 10 runs over 17 innings. He’s had a difficult time keeping the ball in the park, allowing four homers over his last three starts. The Philadelphia Phillies offense has performed much better at home in 2019, launching 20 more homers than on the road. They rank 11th in the NL in runs on the road and fourth at home.

Aaron Nola enjoys making daytime starts. He is 4-0 with a 3.32 ERA and 1.13 WHIP over seven day games. Nola has been on an absolutely dominant stretch, allowing no more than one run over the last five times out. He has significantly lowered his ERA over his last five games from 4.89 to 3.63. Over his last five starts, he has allowed three runs over 35 2/3 innings, including just 19 hits and 43 strikeouts. Nola owns a 2.74 ERA over 12 home starts compared to a 5.08 ERA over eight road outings. The Phillies have won 12 of his 20 starts.

New York Mets (44-51) @ San Francisco Giants (47-49, -110) 9:45 pm ET

Noah Syndergaard (7-4, 4.55 ERA) vs. Madison Bumgarner (5-7, 3.86 ERA)

Pick: Giants

Analysis: Noah Syndergaard has allowed 13 runs over his last 23 2/3 innings (four starts), which equates to a 4.94 ERA. Batters are hitting .319 off Syndergaard with runners in scoring position, which could explain why he’s having his worst season as a pro. The New York Mets offense ranks last in the NL in run production over the month of July until they exploded for 14 runs yesterday. However, the San Francisco Giants have the hottest offense in baseball, scoring 107 runs over 13 games in July.

The Giants are on a roll, having won 11 of their last 13 contests. Madison Bumgarner has been in a groove his last four outings, compiling a 1.80 ERA over 20 innings. He will be one of the hottest commodities as we near the trade deadline if the organization decides to sell. For all we know, this could be Mad-Bum’s last start in the orange and black. San Francisco is still the hottest baseball team on the planet, for now.

Over/Unders

San Diego Padres (46-49) @ Miami Marlins (35-48) 12:10 pm ET

Dinelson Lamet (0-2, 6.30 ERA) vs. Caleb Smith (5-4, 3.46 ERA)

Pick: Over 8

Analysis: Miami Marlins southpaw Caleb Smith owns a 4.67 ERA over his last three starts. He lasted five innings and allowed two runs off two homers against the Padres in their lone battle of 2019. He’s a bit rusty after missing a month of action, and he surrendered five free passes in six innings last time out. In four day games this season, Smith has give up 15 runs (eight round-trippers) over 20 innings. He could continue to get blasted in this one.

Dinelson Lamet owns a 6.30 ERA over two professional starts in 2019 after his return from Tommy John surgery. He has struck out an immaculate 14 batters over 10 innings, but has surrendered three long-balls in the process. The San Diego and Miami bullpens rank 11th and 12th in the NL, respectively. This game should reach the over with two struggling arms starting the game off with a couple bottom-dwelling bullpens finishing it. 

NY Mets (44-51) @ San Francisco Giants (47-49), 9:45 pm ET

Noah Syndergaard (7-4, 4.55 ERA) vs. Madison Bumgarner (5-7, 3.86 ERA)

Pick: Over 7

Analysis: Madison Bumgarner has been great lately, but he didn’t have the most successful outing against the Mets in early June. He allowed three runs off two homers over six innings in a road outing. Even if the Mets offense only scrapes a couple of runs across the plate, the very low run total that Vegas has set should be attainable. 

Remember how the Giants have led baseball in offense this month? Knocking in 107 runs over 13 games during the month has been an amazing turnaround. Since the All-Star break, the Giants have received a major shot in the arm from some unknowns. Alex Dickerson is 8-for-13, Donovan Solano is 9-for-16 with a homer, and Mike Yastrzemski is 9-for-28 with two homers and nine RBI. Even the veterans are contributing over the week, with Brandon Crawford, Buster Posey, and Stephen Vogt combining for eight homers and 23 RBI. The San Francisco offense could reach the over on their own against a struggling Syndergaard and a Mets bullpen that ranks 14th in the NL with a hideous 5.41 ERA.

If you're interested in betting the over/under for tonight check out our MLB over/under page, where you can find lines and odds for every game tonight.

Bet of the Day

Washington Nationals (50-44, -130) @ Atlanta Braves (58-39), 7:20 pm ET

Stephen Strasburg (11-4, 3.46 ERA) vs. Julio Teheran (5-6, 3.71 ERA)

Pick: Nationals

Analysis: The Atlanta Braves have scored a pedestrian 34 runs over their last nine games. They’re 8-4 in the month, but the offense ranks 13th in the NL in batting average and OBP. Julio Teheran has allowed at least one homer in four of his last five starts. He has seen his ERA rise from 2.92 to 3.71 over his last five outings and has lasted more than four innings twice over that span. His BABIP of .264 is starting to level out as he allows more hits. It was regression that a lot of people saw coming.

The Washington Nationals offense has been a tick better than Atlanta’s lately, winning the majority of their series matchups over the past month and a half. They’ve pole vaulted themselves into second place in the NL East behind the Braves, making this four-game series very important.

Stephen Strasburg has been healthy and dominant in 2019. His last two outings have been nearly perfect, tallying 13 1/3 shutout innings with 20 strike outs. Strasburg owns a 3.46 ERA and 16 strikeouts over 13 innings against the Braves this season. He was unlucky, though, as he’s held the Atlanta offense to a 10-for-47 mark with just two extra base hits. The Nationals have been reminding teams that they are still a force to be reckoned with. It seems like everyone forgot.