Trout is expected to win the award for the fourth time in his career
By BetQL Staff - May 1, 2020, 10:39am EDT
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Los Angeles Angels star Mike Trout won his third American League MVP award in 2019 after hitting .291 with 45 home runs and 104 RBI in just 134 games. His .438 on-base percentage, .645 slugging percentage and 1.083 OPS also led the league.
Since arriving at the MLB on a full-time basis at just 20 years old back in 2012, Trout has accumulated three AL MVPs, four AL MVP runner-ups and a fourth-place finish in 2017 when he was limited to 114 games due to injury.
Although MVP awards are usually wide-open races in the betting world, Trout’s odds speak volumes. FanDuel lists him as a +140 favorite to win the hardware, while DraftKings and MGM both list him with +150 odds.
Consider this: after Trout (+150), DraftKings lists Aaron Judge (+1000), Francisco Lindor (+1000), Anthony Rendon (+1400), Alex Bregman (+2000), Matt Chapman (+2000), Josh Donaldson (+2000) and Gleyber Torres (+2000) with the highest odds to win the individual honor.
Not only do these odds highlight how highly-regarded the center fielder is as already one of the best players in the history of the game, but if and when a 2020 season begins, he will have the best supporting cast that he’s ever had around him. Trout led the Majors in intentional walks in each of the past three seasons, but with the addition of Rendon, he will have protection around him in the order since Shohei Ohtani, a healthy Justin Upton and Albert Pujols will likely continue to produce.
Not only that, but consider this: Trout had a .298 BABIP last season (compared to .346 in 2018). In fact, it was his unluckiest hitting season of his career despite the fact that his 43.8% hard-hit rate indicated that he was hitting the ball harder than every season except 2018. He wasn’t a victim of shifts either, since his spray chart was beautifully balanced as usual: 42.4% pull, 33.3% up the middle, 24.3% opposite field.
Another aspect of Trout’s greatness to note is that he saw only 57.7% fastballs at the plate (the lowest rate of his career). Meanwhile, he saw a career-high 16.6% sliders and 9.3% curveballs. But his plate discipline continued to be elite, as he swung at just 20.5% of pitches outside the zone and had a 6.4% swinging-strike rate with a 88.8% contact rate for pitches in the zone. All of the aforementioned offensive numbers played into his 8.6 wins above replacement.
Fun fact: he now has accounted for 73.4 WAR and he’s now 85th in MLB history in that regard. While he has a way to go to catch Babe Ruth (182.5 WAR), he’s widely regarded as the best baseball player the world, not only the AL. Yet again, he’s the best bet to win the MVP and will be for the foreseeable future, barring injury.
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