Mets Could Thrive With Bounce-Back Seasons From Two 2018 Stars

• In his first bold move after taking over as the New York Mets General Manager in the 2018 offseason, Brodie Van Wagenen made a blockbuster deal by sending veterans Jay Bruce, Anthony Swarzak, and prospects Jarred Kelenic, Justin Dunn and Gerson Bautista to the Seattle Mariners in exchange for Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz.

• The Mets took on all of Cano’s remaining $120 million over five years on his contract. The second baseman missed 55 games due to injuries to go along with the worst season of his career at the age of 36.

• A year after he led MLB with 57 saves, Diaz imploded in his first season in New York with a 5.50 ERA and seven blown saves.

• New York is +275 to win the NL East and has the fourth-best odds to represent the National League in the World Series at +900, per DraftKings.

Win-Now Acquisitions

Brodie Van Wagenen wasted no time proving that he meant business in his new role as New York Mets General Manager last winter when he made a controversial decision to trade two of the team’s top prospects. While most general managers want to get younger and cheaper, Van Wagenen shipped Jarred Kelenic (number-three ranked prospect in the system at the time by MLB.com) and Justin Dunn (number-four prospect in system), along with veterans Jay Bruce and Anthony Swarzak to the Seattle Mariners for Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz. 

It not only cost the Mets two of their top prospects, but they took on a ton of money for Cano at the age of 36 (five years and $120 million) because they felt he was still an elite hitter at second base. The thought with Diaz was that he would be the elite closer they have been searching for across many years. Van Wagenen felt they were the missing pieces. 

The first year of the trade could not have turned out any worse for New York. Not only did Diaz and Cano bust, but Kelenic looks as if he can be one of baseball’s next superstars. He had a slash line of .291/.364/.540 with 23 home runs and 20 steals across 500 at-bats in Seattle’s farm system a year ago. According to Baseball Prospectus, Kelenic is the number-seven ranked prospect in all of MLB.

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Cano Looks To Rebound

Once MLB players start declining in their late-30s, things don't typically turn around. Cano will be trying to prove himself as an exception to that rule. A potential Hall Of Fame candidate, he fell off in a big way and was a below-league-average hitter (93 wRC+ and .308 wOBA) in 423 at-bats. That was a steep decline from 2018, when Cano had a 135 wRC+ and a .364 wOBA in 348 at-bats for Seattle.

Even in his prime, Cano has never been a patient hitter with a career walk rate of 6.6 percent, so his hitting value will be relied upon how much damage he can produce. It was even more pronounced last year as Cano swung at 38.2 percent of pitches outside the zone, which was the second-highest mark of his career.

If you’re looking for some positive signs that Cano can bounce back in 2020, it’s that he still produced hard contact last season. He posted an above-average isolated power mark of .172, an above-average HR/FB ratio of 13.0 percent, and around a league-average line drive rate (21.0 percent). Cano’s BABIP was just .280, so there could be some positive regression there.

Dominant Stuff From The Closer

Unlike Cano, Diaz is still in his prime at age-26. It was very hard to see his awful 2020 campaign coming besides the fact that relievers can be volatile. The mental transition can always be tough for a player in his first season in New York, which could have been an issue as the troubles started to mount for Diaz. 

Even after a season of pitching to a 5.59 ERA, Diaz still has some of the best stuff in MLB. Despite the struggles, he still struck out a ton of hitters with the highest K/9 ratio of his career (15.36) and his fastball averaged 97.5 miles per hour. Control was a big issue with Diaz, averaging a large 3.41 walks per nine innings. 

The biggest reason for Diaz imploding was an inordinate amount of homers allowed. His HR/FB ratio was an astounding 26.8 percent, which is a huge outlier and a probable guarantee that he doesn't come anywhere near that level again. That’s why his xFIP was still 3.07, even though the actual results were horrendous. Coming into the year, Diaz had a career HR/FB ratio of 13.6 percent and the league average is 10.5 percent.

With better control and some better luck, Diaz should be able to rebound to 2019 form when he recorded 57 saves and a 1.96 ERA. Bounce back seasons from Diaz and Cano could really aid the Mets chances of making noise in 2020.

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