Luis Severino A Key Piece Of Yanks Hot Start

Astros vs. Yankees pitching analysis and prediction

The Houston Astros will be in New York for their series against the Yankees on Friday night, and we have you covered for the game with an analysis of the starting pitching matchup that could help us determine what might be the best bet for the contest. The starting pitcher has a major impact on who wins and who loses the game, and it is important to have all the facts and latest trends on both starters before you place a wager. We include all of that here and discuss how each pitcher might look against their opposing lineup.

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We'll start with the visiting Astros, who will be sending ageless wonder Justin Verlander out to the mound. There is bad blood between Houston and New York after the Astro's sign-stealing scandal in 2017 when they defeated the Yankees in the AL Championship. These teams hate each other now, and you best believe we will get the best effort out of all of these players. Verlander will need to have his ace stuff out there if he wants to quiet the red hot Yankee bats, especially that of Aaron Judge, who is on another planet right now with how good he has been. Verlander was unusually poor in his last outing against the Chicago White Sox. He allowed seven runs (four earned) on nine hits and no walks while striking out three over just 3.2 innings of work, taking the loss last week. His numbers still remain great for the season, but the veteran saw his ERA jump from 1.94 to 2.30 with a 0.89 WHIP and 81:15 K:BB across 82.1 innings of work in 13 starts this year. I wouldn't read too much into this last start, as they have been very few and far between, plus his team has committed multiple errors in each of his last two starts.

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Luis Severino has been a key piece to the Yankee's contention this season, and one that they are glad to have back. Severino underwent Tommy John surgery at the end of February 2020 and made bullpen appearances for his team 18 months and three weeks afterward. This season, he was back to his starting duties, and he's been impressive to date. Severino holds a 3.27 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in 66 innings of work this season, with a 4-1 record to boot. Of course, his offense has been incredible for him this season and they can put up runs in a hurry, but he's been a stable arm in the rotation that they didn't know they would have. His last start was his worst of the season so far, just like Verlander. He yielded five runs on three hits and four walks over five innings of work while striking out nine in a no-decision. It was the first time this season Severino issued more than two walks or allowed more than four runs in a start. He's been making guys whiff all season, with 80 K's in 66 innings.

This is an incredibly tough matchup that will feature two pitchers that have been fantastic this season. The Yankees are favored, as they probably should be with that offense. However, getting Justin Verlander at plus-money odds in a game is exceedingly rare. I know it's the Yankees and it's Yankee Stadium, but I can't help but bet Houston for the simple fact that there is massive value here with Verlander on the mound. It isn't like the Astros offense is bottom five in the league, they can put up runs as well, just not as prolifically as New York. This game should have runs coming as a premium for both teams, and while I like Severino, I'll go with the veteran ace at plus money.

Pick: Houston ML +100, Under 8 (-120)

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