Guardians Ace Shane Bieber Has Edge Against Rays

The Major League Baseball postseason is finally here! After a long 162-game season, we have reached the endgame, and the teams are set for battle to see who takes home the crown. The very first match we get this postseason involves the Tampa Bay Rays and Cleveland Guardians in the AL Wild Card Round.

Tampa Bay finished 86-76, which is actually pretty impressive considering the injuries that they have had this year. Cleveland, meanwhile, won the AL Central by 11.0 games after the White Sox and Twins completely melted down late in the year. One of the keys to this series will be the starting pitching, with both teams boasting some of the best arms in the business. It could be a tough series for batters as they look to do some damage against the talent they will face.

In Game 1, we get Shane McClanahan vs. Shane Bieber. It's the battle of the Shanes, and I'm inclined to put my money on the favorite in this one. I think both of these guys have shown that they have some underlying metrics that say neither one is as good as their numbers make them seem, but I like the direction that Bieber is headed vs. McClanahan. The Rays ace finished the regular season with a 2.54 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, and 194:38 K-to-BB across 166.1 innings through 28 starts.

The bad news is that he has seen his numbers steadily climb since returning from the IL. In mid-July, McClanahan had an ERA of 1.76 and a 0.77 WHIP. He was dominating all comers, but something went awry for the left-hander after that. His ERA and WHIP increased dramatically over the second half of the season, increasing with each game. He didn't allow over three earned runs in a game during the entire first half, but July 31 marked his fall when he allowed five in a game. He would then allow four or five runs in three more games to finish out his year.

Bieber is the play here, and that is because he has seen the exact opposite trend happen to him over the same stretch. In mid-July, Bieber was sitting at a 3.55 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. He didn't look like the same dominant pitcher we have seen over the last several years, and maybe he will never be that type of guy again, but he has been very good over the second half of the year. He finished the regular season with a 2.88 ERA and 1.04 WHIP, a remarkable jump from his poor numbers at the midway point. He got better with every start, unlike McClanahan.

The hottest team usually is the one that wins in the postseason, and Cleveland won 24 of their last 30 games of the season to win their division and make it here. Tampa lost eight of their last 10 games to end the year.