DraftKings Ace Of The Slate (September 17th)

Lucas Giolito ($10,600)

White Sox @ Twins

• By no means do the Twins struggle at home, but they don’t score nearly as many runs at Target Field this season, averaging 5.38 runs per game at home White Sox ace Lucas Giolito (10,600)  has averaged 24.6 DraftKings points on the road this season (2.83 ERA). 

• Spending up on Justin Verlander ($12,800) or Yu Darvish ($11,200) constricts the ability to roster talented hitters on this slate.

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Slate Analysis

When looking for a high-priced pitcher, it’s tough to justify spending up for Justin Verlander or Yu Darvish tonight. Darvish ($11,200) is his highest price of the season and averages about six points per game more on the road than at home this season where he’ll be facing off with the Reds at Wrigley Field tonight. 

Justin Verlander ($12,800) is also his highest price of the season on the road against the Rangers at a ballpark that rates as the second-most hitter friendly behind Coors Field by some metrics. None of the remaining premium priced pitchers will be “moneyline friendly” (Patrick Corbin @ STL, Chris Paddack @ MIL, Sonny Gray @ CHC) and none of them boast the road numbers that Lucas Giolito does this season.

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Giolito on the Road

Lucas Giolito has a complete game shutout in Minnesota to his credit this season which is certainly an outlier. Even if you remove that from his game log, Giolito still averages 24.6 points per game on the road which is 6.6 points higher than his expected value of 18 points at $10,600.

Giolito has ridden a .270 wOBA and a 4.37 K/BB rate on the road to a 2.83 road ERA. Giolito has been no slouch at home, but has been vulnerable at times with a 4.06 ERA. The lack of a favorable moneyline as well as the fear of the Twins powerful lineup will likely result in tame ownership percentages, but there should be no fear in riding Giolito on the road at a price that isn’t too egregious. 

Note: The advice above is the writer’s opinion only and does not represent the stance or interest of BetQL or RotoQL in any way.