2022 Masters: Outright Winner Value Bets

The BetQL Model identified the following values at Augusta

The best golfers in the world will be competing for the $11.5 million purse at Augusta, but who will earn the $2.07 million first place prize and coveted Green Jacket at the 2022 Masters? In the guide below, you’ll see BetQL’s value ratings for the outright favorites, sleeper picks, expert picks and deep longshots to consider.

Our predictive model takes into account overall player performance, recent form, course strengths and weaknesses per player and sportsbook odds. It has been developed and tested throughout previous PGA seasons and has compiled historical data from 25+ years of golfer and course history. Note: odds presented below were shopped among our sportsbook partners to identify the best values. Content is free for a limited time. All statistics below were found on PGATour.com. Star ratings are on 1-5 scale (1 being least valuable, 5 being most valuable).

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FAVORITES TO WIN (PER BETQL)

#1. Jon Rahm (+1200, PointsBet)

BetQL Projection: +655 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ 

It’s no surprise that the world’s best golfer has the best odds to win in our model. He finished T5 last year and has four consecutive Top 10 finishes at this major (T7 in 2020, T9 in 2019 and 4 in 2018). CLICK HERE to read more about how Rahm’s game fits at Augusta; we’re giving him +655 odds to put on the Green Jacket.

#2. Justin Thomas (+1300, FanDuel)

BetQL Projection: +716 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ 

Thomas’ all-around game gives him the ability to put up low scores in any round, as evidenced by his 2nd Round 67 last year and 1st Round 66 in 2020. He finished T21 here in 2021, but finished solo 4 in 2020 after a T12 and T17 in the previous two years. CLICK HERE to find out why this could be the week he puts it all together.

#3. Rory McIlroy (+2000, DraftKings)

BetQL Projection: +865 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ 

The four-time major champion has an impressive six Top-10 finishes in 13 Masters appearances. While he hasn’t won a Green Jacket yet, he’s been remarkably consistent at Augusta. BetQL is giving him +865 odds to win his 30th-career professional win this week.

#4. Patrick Cantlay (+2500, DraftKings)

BetQL Projection: +1014 ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The 2021 PGA Tour Player of the Year is off to another hot start this season, with four Top-10 finishes in five events. He won four events last season and has T9 and T17 finishes here at Augusta in 2019 and 2021, respectively. Our model is giving him +1014 odds to win this tournament.

#5. Collin Morikawa (+2200, FanDuel)

BetQL Projection: +1079 ⭐⭐⭐

Morikawa clearly doesn’t mind the pressure of major tournaments, having won the 2020 PGA Championship and the 2021 Open Championship already. The 25 year old finished T18 at last year’s Masters. His current form is a bit concerning (after finishing 68 at the Valspar following a MC at THE PLAYERS), but he started off the year with these finishing positions: 2, 7, 5, 5 and 2. When he’s hot, he’s one of the best in the world and we’re giving him +1079 odds to win.

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WILL TIGER CONTEND?

Tiger Woods (+3500, DraftKings)

BetQL Projection: +136519 🚫

The short answer is: no. Per our model, he has +136519 odds (or a 0.07% chance) to win this event coming off his horrific car crash injuries and corresponding layoff. CLICK HERE to read our full report on Tiger’s availability and betting odds. Hint: don’t fall for the trap that sportsbooks are setting!

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SLEEPERS TO CONSIDER

Daniel Berger (+4000, DraftKings)

BetQL Projection: +1671 ⭐⭐⭐

Our model is giving Berger a 5.65% implied probability (9th-best odds in the field) to win the Green Jacket compared to the 2.44% implied probability he has on DraftKings. Berger has been on fire so far this season, breaking the Top 20 in five of his six tournaments, including three Top 7 finishes: 4th at the Honda Classic, 5th at the Sentry Tournament of Champions and 7th at the Hero World Challenge. He’s made the cut in three of his four Masters appearances, but hasn’t exactly found a lot of success after his T10 finish in his 2016 debut: T27 in 2017, T32 in 2018 and T55 last year.

Known as one of the best ball-strikers on Tour (an important element of winning at Augusta), the 28 year old has turned the corner and ranks 9th in Strokes-Gained: Tee-To-Green, 9th in Scoring Average, 10th in SG: Around-The-Green, 12th in Driving Accuracy Percentage, 22nd in Birdie Average, 23rd in Overall Putting Average and 24th in SG: Approach-The-Green, which sums up how complete his game has been this season. 

Webb Simpson (+6500, FanDuel)

BetQL Projection: +2623 ⭐⭐⭐

Our model is giving Simpson a 3.67% implied probability (13th-best odds in the field) to win the tournament compared to the 1.52% implied probability he has on FanDuel. This is Simpson’s 11th consecutive Masters start and he’s had three straight solid performances at the event: T5 in 2019, T10 in 2020 and T12 in 2021. His top performances of the season came at the RSM Classic (8th), The CJ Cup @ Summit (14th) and the Hero World Challenge (17th), but he profiles well at Augusta.

Simpson ranks 3rd in Total Driving Efficiency, 9th in Overall Putting Average and 18th in Scoring Average (Actual) this season, so you can do a lot worse when betting longshots.

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EXPERT PICKS

Dan Karpuc: Tyrrell Hatton (+7000, PointsBet)

BetQL Projection: +2797 ⭐⭐⭐

This is one of the best longshot Masters bets you can make, according to BetQL’s PGA Model. BetQL is projecting him at +2797, a massive value against the +7000 odds he has on PointsBet. Our model is giving Hatton a 3.5% implied probability (14th-best odds in the field) to win the Masters compared to the 1.4% implied probability he has on PointsBet.

Hatton has been on a solid streak this year, having made four consecutive cuts at the Hero World Challenge (ninth), Arnold Palmer Invitational (second), THE PLAYERS Championship (13th) and the Valspar Championship (21st). He finished T-18 with a final-round 68 at last year’s Masters. He has also been the best putter on Tour this year. He ranks first on Tour in SG: Putting, first in Overall Putting Average, first in Average Distance Of Putts Made, second in 3-Putt Avoidance and third in 1-Putt Percentage. Hatton also ranks second in Going For The Green (Birdie Or Better), eigth in SG: Total, 19th in Birdie Average and 22nd in Scoring Average. Putting is a crucial part of winning a major tournament, so he seemingly has an edge in that department. If he can put together the rest of his game, he could shock some people at Augusta (except us)!

Lucy Burdge: Justin Thomas (+1300, FanDuel)

BetQL Projection: +716 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ 

This will be Thomas’ seventh Masters appearance, and this could be the year he finally wins it. He has never missed a cut for the Masters, and he’s only behind Jon Rahm on the odds list, tied with Colin Morikawa and Jordan Spieth. BetQL’s PGA Model is projecting Thomas at +716 odds, giving Thomas a 12.3% implied probability to win. This is also one of only three ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Masters bets from the PGA Model, so look closely at this one. Thomas has seven top-20 finishes this season and he still has good value at these odds, so I have confidence he has a real shot to win the Masters this year.

Brad Pinkerton: Rory McIlroy (+2000, DraftKings)

BetQL Projection: +865 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ 

Truthfully, I'm looking at three golfers in this range, and their odds are highest at DraftKings: Dustin Johnson (+1600), Jordan Spieth (+1800) and McIlroy. Why this trio? Because these three boast the lowest scoring averages at the Masters among players with 25-49 rounds: 1. Spieth (70.46), 2. Johnson (71.03) and 3. McIlroy (71.33). There's great value in all three, but I'm leaning McIlroy here because BetQL’s PGA Model is projecting him at +865 odds (10.4% implied probability to win), well shorter than the +1600 odds at DraftKings, making him a ⭐⭐⭐⭐ value. McIlroy has won four career majors, but the Masters is the only one missing in his quest for the Grand Slam. With six top-10 finishes in 13 appearances at Augusta, this could finally be the year for McIlroy.

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LONGSHOT SLEEPER PICKS

Ryan Palmer (+37000, FanDuel)

BetQL Projection: +6829 ⭐⭐ 

Palmer led last week’s Valero Texas Open after the 2nd round and shot impressive back-to-back rounds of 68-66 before the weekend. He then imploded with 77-74 and finished in 48th place, but our model is giving him drastically-shorter odds (+6829) than he has on FanDuel (+37000). Palmer ranks 24th on Tour in SG: Off-The-Tee and 35th in SG: Tee-To-Green this season, so if you want to make a longshot bet, he’s a logical choice.

Mackenzie Hughes (+35000, FanDuel)

BetQL Projection: +8805 ⭐⭐ 

What makes Hughes stand out is his putting skills. He ranks 9th on Tour in SG: Putting and 12th in Scoring Average (70.05). He’s another stellar longshot option given BetQL’s odds versus FanDuel’s.

Matthew Wolff (+30000, FanDuel)

BetQL Projection: +12833 ⭐⭐ 

The 22 year old has certainly hit a rough patch and is in bad form right now, but he has the tools to make some noise. He ranks 4th on Tour in Driving Distance (317.3) due to his elite Club Head Speed (124.40, 3rd). He also ranks 26th in SG: Putting. While he has to put his middle game together, there’s still value in taking a shot on him at +30000. 

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