Betting On Tiger Woods At The 2022 Masters Is A Trap

Our model's prediction shows how much of a longshot he actually is

Don't Even Think About Taking Woods At These Odds

The golf world held its breath when it found out that one of its greatest to ever play was in a life-threatening car accident on February 23, 2021. Many believed that he would never play the game of golf again at a professional level.

Well, fast-forward to April of 2022, and here we are with the ever-lasting Tiger Woods getting set to compete at the Master's Major Championship once again. Having healed up from his accident just 14 months ago, Woods is looking to win his first major since he won here at Augusta in 2019. No surprise either, his odds immediately flew up the board when it was announced that he was practicing again and could actively participate in the tournament. They went from +8000 to the +4000 (DraftKings) and +5000 (FanDuel) range at most sportsbooks almost instantly, which is just madness. Woods calls himself a "game-time decision" but it appears as if he will pick up the clubs and play this week for the first time in over a year.

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When the line moves from +8000 to +4000 on a dime, you know something fishy is going on. For the line to move that much just upon him saying he's practicing, someone would have to have wasted a very large sum of money, or they are just playing down to the common bettor that doesn't know better.

Our model doesn't think his odds should be anywhere close to this number, as we have him in an entirely different stratosphere. The BetQL PGA Model gives Woods +136519 odds (or .07% chance) to win the Masters this year.

Yeah, if you bet him at +4000, you took the bait.

Woods hasn't played competitively in two years, and he already has higher odds to win than some guys who have played well this season.

I wouldn't make this bet, as I believe this line movement is what you might call a "sucker bet" to get casual fans to bet on Woods. He could win, you never know, but he represents awful value at this number.

STAY AWAY. At least this year.

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