2022 Masters Sleeper Picks Based On Red Hot Model Projections
These three golfers have a ton of value according to our PGA Model
Dan Karpuc - Jul 14, 2023, 5:14pm EDTMORE MASTERS: ODDS | SLEEPERS | EXPERT PICKS | ODDS BOOSTS
The best golfers in the world will be competing for the $11.5 million purse at Augusta, but who will earn the $2.07 million first place prize and coveted Green Jacket at the 2022 Masters? While guys like Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas, Collin Morikawa and Jordan Spieth have some of the shortest odds across the various sportsbooks, it’s always important to evaluate which sleepers have upside. Our PGA Model identified the following three sleeper picks as outstanding values based on our projections versus current odds.
Our predictive model takes into account overall player performance, recent form, course strengths and weaknesses per player and sportsbook odds. It’s been developed and tested throughout previous PGA seasons and has compiled historical data from 25+ years of golfer and course history. Note: odds presented below were shopped among our sportsbook partners to identify the best values. Content is free for a limited time. All statistics below were found on PGATour.com.
Daniel Berger (+4000, DraftKings)
BetQL Projection: +1671 ⭐⭐⭐
Our model is giving Berger a 5.65% implied probability (9th-best odds in the field) to win the Green Jacket compared to the 2.44% implied probability he has on DraftKings. Berger has been on fire so far this season, breaking the Top 20 in five of his six tournaments, including three Top 7 finishes: 4th at the Honda Classic, 5th at the Sentry Tournament of Champions and 7th at the Hero World Challenge. He’s made the cut in three of his four Masters appearances, but hasn’t exactly found a lot of success after his T10 finish in his 2016 debut: T27 in 2017, T32 in 2018 and T55 last year.
Known as one of the best ball-strikers on Tour (an important element of winning at Augusta), the 28 year old has turned the corner and ranks 9th in Strokes-Gained: Tee-To-Green, 9th in Scoring Average, 10th in SG: Around-The-Green, 12th in Driving Accuracy Percentage, 22nd in Birdie Average, 23rd in Overall Putting Average and 24th in SG: Approach-The-Green, which sums up how complete his game has been this season.
Webb Simpson (+6500, FanDuel)
BetQL Projection: +2699 ⭐⭐⭐
Our model is giving Simpson a 3.57% implied probability (13th-best odds in the field) to win the tournament compared to the 1.52% implied probability he has on FanDuel. This is Simpson’s 11th consecutive Masters start and he’s had three straight solid performances at the event: T5 in 2019, T10 in 2020 and T12 in 2021. His top performances of the season came at the RSM Classic (8th), The CJ Cup @ Summit (14th) and the Hero World Challenge (17th), but he profiles well at Augusta.
Simpson ranks 3rd in Total Driving Efficiency, 9th in Overall Putting Average and 18th in Scoring Average (Actual) this season, so you can do a lot worse when betting longshots.
Tyrrell Hatton (+7000, PointsBet)
BetQL Projection: 2764 ⭐⭐⭐
Our model is giving Hatton a 3.49% implied probability (14th-best odds in the field) to win the Masters compared to the 1.41% implied probability he has on PointsBet. This will be Hatton’s 6th consecutive Masters start and while he missed the cut twice in the past, he finished T18 with a final round 68 in last year’s event. Hatton has been on a solid streak this year, having made four consecutive cuts at the Hero World Challenge (9th), Arnold Palmer Invitational (2nd), THE PLAYERS Championship (13th) and the Valspar Championship (21st).
He has also been the best putter on Tour this year. He ranks 1st on Tour in SG: Putting, 1st in Overall Putting Average, 1st in Average Distance Of Putts Made, 2nd in 3-Putt Avoidance and 3rd in 1-Putt Percentage. Hatton also ranks 2nd in Going For The Green (Birdie Or Better), 8th in SG: Total, 19th in Birdie Average and 22nd in Scoring Average. If his putter gets hot, he will be in contention at any tournament, especially at a major setting like Augusta, where putting has been a crucial part of the winning recipe over the years.
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