2022 Masters: Best Finishing Position Bets
The BetQL Model identified the following values at Augusta
Dan Karpuc - Apr 6, 2022, 1:10pm EDTBetQL is your source for the most valuable 2022 Masters bets. We’ve uncovered our model’s outright winner projections, analyzed sleeper picks and broke down Tiger Woods’ surprising inclusion in the event. Jon Rahm and Justin Thomas are among the favorites, but who else should you bet on? Take a look below and see our model’s best bets to win, finish in the Top 5, finish in the Top 10, finish in the Top 20, finish in the Top 30 and finish in the Top 40.
Our predictive model takes into account overall player performance, recent form, course strengths and weaknesses per player and sportsbook odds. It has been developed and tested throughout previous PGA seasons and has compiled historical data from 25+ years of golfer and course history. Note: odds presented below were shopped among our sportsbook partners to identify the best values. Content is free for a limited time. All statistics below were found on PGATour.com. Star ratings are on 1-5 scale (1 being least valuable, 5 being most valuable).
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Jon Rahm To Win (+1200, FanDuel)
BetQL Value Rating: ⭐⭐⭐
Consistency, consistency, consistency. Rahm finished T5 last year and has four consecutive Top 10 finishes at this major (T7 in 2020, T9 in 2019 and 4 in 2018). In 2021, he co-led the field in Bogey Avoidance and he was the only golfer to finish in the Top 10 of all four majors plus THE PLAYERS Championship last year. CLICK HERE to read more about how Rahm’s game fits at Augusta and how he can capitalize off of his brilliant current form.
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Bryson DeChambeau Top 5 Finish (+800, PointsBet)
BetQL Value Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐
DeChambeau reportedly calls his 6-iron “Juniper” after Augusta’s Par-3 6th hole. This will be his sixth Masters appearance. Six six six. One might say he’s going to have a hell of a time at Augusta this week. See what I did there? DeChambeau always has a length advantage over the field and can take unique angles and approach shots that others can’t even dream of attempting. Our model is listing this as a four-star value.
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Hideki Matsuyama Top 10 Finish (+360, FanDuel)
BetQL Value Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Matsuyama won this event last year with a -10 score and finished T2 in Par-4 Scoring, 4th in Par-5 scoring. Part of that victory included a sensational third-round 65 score and he took a four-stroke lead into Sunday. He ranks 9th in the field in SG: Approach-The-Green, T3 in Par-5 Scoring and 12th in Bogey Avoidance this season. Plus, fun fact: he had arguably the best champion’s dinner ever on Tuesday night. Per Yahoo Sports, this was the menu: assorted sushi, sashimi and nigiri; yakitori chicken skewers, Miso glazed black cod with dashi broth, Miyazaki wagyu: A5 wagyu beef ribeye with mixed mushrooms and vegetables and Japanese strawberry shortcake with whipped cream and Amaou strawberries. If that doesn’t give him bonus points, I don’t know what would. Our model is listing him as a four-star value to finish in the Top 10.
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Webb Simpson Top 20 Finish (+275, DraftKings)
BetQL Value Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐
“I definitely had to learn the hard way after a number of years,” Simpson recently told Golf.com. “... Pretty much every hole they give you a bail-out area, one side of the green or another, on each hole you have an opportunity to get up-and-down. And I think I was just stubborn and it took me maybe three or four Masters where I really not only understood it but put it into play and that’s when I started playing a lot better there.” It seems like he’s figured some things out over the years, having posted a pair of Top-10s, four Top-25s and made the cut in seven of his 10 appearances at Augusta. He ranks 9th in Overall Putting Average this season and we’re listing him as a strong, four-star value to finish in the Top 20.
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Tommy Fleetwood Top 30 Finish (+120, PointsBet)
BetQL Value Rating: ⭐⭐⭐
Fleetwood is coming off three solid finishes: 16th at the Valspar Championship last week, 22nd at THE PLAYERS Championship and 20th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He ranks 2nd on Tour in SG: Around-The-Green, 16th in Overall Putting Average, 16th in Scoring Average, 27th in SG: Putting and 28th in SG: Total. He’s simply a smart bet to finish in the Top 30 and his three-star value accentuates that fact.
Ryan Palmer Top 40 Finish (+110, BetMGM)
BetQL Value Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Palmer led last week’s Valero Texas Open after the 2nd round and shot impressive back-to-back rounds of 68-66 before the weekend. He then imploded with 77-74 and finished in 48th place, but showed glimpses of brilliance on Thursday and Friday. Palmer ranks 24th on Tour in SG: Off-The-Tee and 35th in SG: Tee-To-Green this season, so he’s a logical choice to target to finish in the Top 40. Our model is listing this as a four-star value.
