NFL DFS Picks For This Week

NFL DFS Picks For Week 16

Lineup: 9 Slots (QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex, 1 DST)
Salary Cap: $50,000 ($5,556 per player)
Scoring: QB: 1 pt per 25 yds, 4 pts per TD, -1 pt per INT
RB/WR/TE: 1 pt per 10 yds rushing/receiving, 1 pt per reception, 6 pts per TD, -1 pt per fumble
DST: 1 pt per sack, 2 pts per turnover, 6 pts per DST TD

Welcome to Week 16 of the NFL Season – before I launch into my usual weekly musings, I wanted to take a few seconds about a matter completely unrelated to Fantasy Football.  I’m a bloke that wears his heart on his sleeve, and this has been a rough week personally.  I’ve had several people close to me pass away the last couple of years, and the passing of Eric Montross early in the week really hit home.  I went to UNC when he played, and he was friends with several people on my hall.  We became decent friends, and some of the best memories in my life were with him.  I used to call him Dr Zero, hoping that the moniker would stick as he ventured into the NBA.  The dude was a very special person – you would never know that he was the Big Man on Campus, for he was always so gracious, humble, and giving of his time.  With a heavy heart, I just wanted to give Dr. Zero a shout out this week – I love you, brother – you had a tremendous impact in so many people’s lives!

Schedule Overview:  Week 16 could also be known as the 2nd DFS holiday spectacular.  This is the first time I can recollect the NFL totally infringing on the NBA’s Christmas stronghold by rolling out 3 games, much like Turkey Day.  Once again, DraftKings doesn’t have a contest that captures Saturday, Sunday, and Monday; the good news is that the Saturday games are pretty subpar.  All the love will be given to the two marquee games that pit teams with 10+ wins going against each other: Dallas/Miami and Baltimore/San Fran.  This week aligns pretty well with contending teams facing off, and the dreck going head-to-head with each other.  From that standpoint, this looks to be the most compelling week of football – there are no spreads higher than 7 points on Sunday!  With that being said, let’s try to optimize the advantageous matchups, shall we?

Budget Allocation Overview:  Given that this is a full point PPR (points per reception) format, the bulk of your funds needs to be channeled towards the best WRs.  Here’s my typical, initial blueprint on how I try to allocate the $50,000:

QB: Initial Goal $6,000
RB: Initial Goal $12,000 (average $6,000 per RB)
WR: Initial Goal $19,000 (average $6,334 per WR)
TE: Initial Goal $4,000
Flex: Initial Goal $6,000
D/ST: Initial Goal $3,000

QB Choice: Justin Fields, CHI ($7,100)

When it comes to choosing our starting QB, you have to always look at the winter weather report before fully committing.  For the most part, the weather doesn’t look to be a deterrent in the majority of this weekend’s games.  In fact, it is supposed to be in the mid 50’s in Chicago.  While the Bears are pretty much out of playoff contention, courtesy of their late game collapse in Cleveland, Justin Fields is playing for his job.  There has been so much consternation centered around what the Bears will do with their multiple draft picks in what figures to be a QB-laden 2024 draft.  These last 3 games will provide further insight to management about whether or not Fields is the long-term answer.  Since the Montez Sweat trade, the Bears have been markedly improved; in fact, the defense has been a Top 5 unit.  One thing you can say about Justin Fields: over the course of his career, he absolutely has had big DFS games against the really crappy defenses.  Fields has had 2 33 DFS point outings against Denver and Washington, and he also has had 24+ DFS points in each of the 2 games against Detroit.  Arizona is on the fringe of being a bottom 5 defense in terms of total yards (360 yds/gm).  With his starting job potentially in question, I look at this game being a watershed, gut-check moment for Fields.  I fully envision Fields having his best Fantasy game of the season against the hapless Cards.

For this week, I’m going to cut down on the verbiage surrounding whom I think the majority of entrants will be taking.  To me, this analysis is more cut and dried than any other week.  The NFL PR machine has effectively gotten the word out about the Dallas/Miami and Baltimore/San Fran games.  All 4 teams are favorites in the eyes of the public, so naturally, DFS lineups will have every combo and stack you can think of from these squads.  As a result, our starters and other viable options won’t have any representation from these two games! Allow me to pull a Forrest Gump, “And that’s all I have to say about that!”

Other QB Option:

Baker Mayfield, TB ($6,000) – Baker has been a regular in this article in 3 of the past 4 weeks, and we have hit paydirt with him twice.  I’m actually very surprised how well he did last week in Green Bay; he had 33 DFS points and a perfect passer rating.  One thing that I love to do in both handicapping and Fantasy Football is ride the hot hand.  Tampa has been playing some pretty good ball, and I’ve timed them well in regards to picking them ATS.  The Jacksonville D has been the 31st ranked unit over the past 3 weeks, and that’s mostly due to their secondary being in shambles.  Tampa controls their own playoff destiny, and I look for the Bucs to continue their stellar play.  Despite having a moribund secondary, this team is extremely cohesive and is peaking at the right time.  Mayfield has his stamp on this team, and I don’t see his play tapering off against the Jags.

RB Choices: Bijan Robinson, ATL ($6,300) and Chuba Hubbard, CAR ($5,700)

I just have to shake my head once again when I bring up the Atlanta Falcons.  Like I’ve said in a previous article, I really was impressed with how Arthur Smith coached the team before this season.  It turns out that Smith just can’t have nice things, though I’d hardly refer to QB Desmond Ridder as such.  All of my disdain (and much of the media as well) is directed to his absolute mismanagement of Bijan Robinson’s workload.  For instance, take last week’s game against Carolina.  The weather was horrible here in Charlotte, yet Robinson only had 7 carries for 11 yards. The Falcons ran the ball 31 times, but Bijan only had 7 of those rushes? Are you f’in kidding me?  The last 5 Falcon losses were all games that Atlanta should have won.  They lost to Will Levis in his debut, they lost to a QB that didn’t know the playbook, they lost to a terrible Cardinal team, they lost in the last minute to Tampa, and they lost in the Charlotte monsoon because of a horrible turnover in the red zone.  Arthur Smith was able to do the QB switch earlier in the year under the guise of a Ridder injury.  Once Ridder was deemed “healthy”, the team reinserted him back as the starter.  Don’t get me wrong, Taylor Heinicke wasn’t lighting up the Georgia skies, but the team definitely plays better with him at the helm.  No matter who mans the ship, here’s the key to Falcon success: just give the damn ball to Bijan!  It's just that simple!  With Arthur Smith clearly in survival mode (I’m guessing he will still get the ax), the team announced that Heinicke will be the starter for the rest of the season.  Since he’s fighting for his coaching life, look for Smith to get back to basics and lean on the #8 overall pick.  Indy has one of the worst rushing defenses in the league (128 yds/gm), and Bijan has 100+ yards/4+ catches/1 TD written all over it.

While I’m on the subject of total disappointments, it’s time for me to give the Packers their fair due.  If you need a refresher course, the NFL is a week-to-week league where recency bias and public perception always reigns supreme.  After their victory against Kansas City (who we know are not playing well), the pundits and blowhards were anointing Green Bay as the darling that could make a serious push once the playoffs start.  Everyone was overlooking the Pack going on the road to face that goon Tommy Cutlets and the Giants.  The Giants +6 was my favorite play from that weekend, and you know why?  Because Matt LaFleur is hot garbage as a head coach - all you need to do is watch the tape of that game to see that statement ring true. There were no in-game or halftime adjustments, and the Pack not only let DeVito run for 70+ yards but they also let Cutlets complete over 80% of his passes.  The worst part was that Green Bay didn’t have a sack; DeVito has been a pinata game in and game out, but not against the Pack!  Green Bay has surrendered 153 yds/gm on the ground their last 3 games, and while Carolina is atrocious, they are playing with a little more fire since they let Reich go.  Chuba Hubbard has had 3 straight games of 22+ carries, and despite this heavy workload behind a very suspect O-line, he’s still averaging right on 4 YPC.  I have one word that aptly describes the Green Bay rush D: gutless!  Look for Carolina to grind this game down to a halt and play ball control.  Hubbard will have another 22+ carry game for 100+ yards, and he’ll also have at least 3 catches.  I’m sure the Green Bay DC will be the fall guy, but Matt LaFleur is an absolute bum as the head man!

Other Viable RB Option

Breece Hall, NYJ ($6,100) - Staying with this gutless rushing defense theme, the Commanders definitely fit the bill giving up almost 140 yds/gm over their last 3 games.  Ron Rivera has already cleaned out his locker and packed his bags; he is the textbook definition of a lame duck coach.  The Jets were absolutely destroyed last week down in Miami, and they are looking for an immediate palate cleanser.  From a DFS perspective, Hall has been a godsend catching the ball out of the backfield.  He has had 4 straight games of 5+ catches before that lemon last week.  In terms of him running the ball, he hasn’t had more than 13 carries in over 6 weeks.  With Robert Saleh on the hot seat, he definitely needs to show that he’s still in control of the team. Hall will have a 25+ DFS point effort this week despite having a subpar QB leading the way – mark my words!

WR Choices: DJ Moore, CHI ($6,900), DK Metcalf, SEA ($6,700), Wan'Dale Robinson, NYG ($3,900)

Flex Choice: Jordan Addison, MIN ($6,000) 

What do these 4 players have in common?  They all go against a bottom 10 pass defense this week!  Naturally, we are reverting back to the stack by pairing up DJ Moore with Justin Fields.  I’m a little surprised that Moore is sitting under $7,000, especially since he’s had 5 25+ DFS games this season.  Obviously, there is a direct correlation between Moore having dominant outings when Fields is locked in.  And as I mentioned earlier, Fields does his best work against the bums of the NFL.  Moore is going to continually blow by the Cardinal secondary; I don’t think he has a game like he did against Washington, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he had 30+ DFS points.

I’m going to take another crack at DK Metcalf against the Titans, for I noticed that his salary jumped from $6,100 to $6,700 despite him only having a very pedestrian week against Philly.  I think the fact that Noah Brown’s performance against Tennessee last week, which we called correctly in last week’s article, has something to do with that increased cap figure.  He had 11 targets and 8 catches for 82 yds/1TD, and Tennessee was fully aware that Brown would be the focal point in the passing game.  To make matters worse, Case Keenum played and orchestrated the big road win.  Geno Smith should be back in the saddle, but I have to say that Drew Lock shut a lot of folks up last week with his game winning drive Monday night.  With #1 WRs continually carving up the Tennessee secondary, it makes sense to use that salary increase to our full advantage and keep Metcalf as a starter.

The extremely cheap WR market is arguably the worst I’ve seen in all 16 weeks; to say it’s piss poor is a drastic understatement.  I’m going to spare you guys from any further Wan'Dale Robinson propaganda and rhetoric – just know that he is the only reliable WR threat for Big Blue, and he goes against a really atrocious set of Philly DBs.  I did try to find a viable substitute for our Flea Market Find, but all roads lead back to the same jabroni we’ve taken so many times before.

The good news about our lineup this week is that our budget has been rather easy to maintain; that’s the beauty of taking guys who are value priced at every position.  I’m not feeling super good about our FLEX, but I do think he’s the best option for what we can afford.  Addison had a fantastic week against Cincinnati (32 DFS pts) and showed great rapport with Nick Mullens. The strength of Detroit’s D lies in their rush defense, and going over the top is something that Minnesota will look to do all day.  Sure, Mullens will have some idiotic passes and ugly looking floaters, but Fantasy isn’t about style points. We just want productive WRs, and since Double J is sitting at $8,100 (albeit, that’s REEEEALLY cheap for him), we will take the most budget friendly Viking instead.  Both guys should have banner days, and the Vikings will win outright – you heard it here first! 

Other Viable WR Options

For the first time all year, I just don’t see anything other than utilizing the 4 jabronis we currently have earmarked as starters.  We could go the upper echelon route, but as I wrote earlier, the bargain basement guys this week are at all-time awful levels.  There’s also a lot of uncertainty going on right now with WRs of similar ilk to our starters so that throws another monkey wrench in offering up Plan B options.  I was going to throw down some Garrett Wilson ($5,800), but there’s no way you can take him with Zach Wilson not playing.

The Only TE Choice: Kyle Pitts, ATL ($4,000)

2 Atlanta Falcons in your starting lineup?  Why yes…yes indeed!  Part 2 of the Arthur Smith survival plan involves bringing Kyle Pitts back into the fold, and the Indy D has been a unit that we have picked on all year.  Heinicke may have a noodle arm, but he shouldn’t make the same dopey mistakes that has continually plagued Desmond Ridder.  Heinicke knows who butters his bread, and Pitts should garner upwards of 6+ targets and haul in TD #3 of the season.  The Atlanta D has played surprisingly well all season, and I definitely like the Falcons to get the W over Indy.  The offense won’t let them down this weekend, and we will bear the fruits of their labor.

The DST Choice: Cleveland ($3,400)

With Case Keenum starting again and working behind a sketchy O-line, I don’t like his chances of standing upright at the end of this game.  Cleveland has had 9 games of 3+ sacks, but I’m thinking that the Browns get more along the lines of 5+ against Houston.  The Browns have also had 2+ INT in 5 of their last 8 games, and with Keenum running for his life on every snap, I can definitely see him throwing 2 INT, including one of the Pick 6 variety!

Entire Team - $50,000 out of $50,000 – All Used!

Our Week 16 lineup doesn’t have a lot of glitz and glam to it, but we did use every little cent that was available to us.  The majority of our skill players hover in the $6,000-$7,000 range so what we lack in star power should be made up for in more consistent production with a strong likelihood for solid upside.  We have targeted both players and coaches that are fighting for their NFL starting gigs, and that type of motivation can’t be underestimated this time of year.  For most folks, Week 16 also marks the 2nd week of conventional Fantasy playoffs.  Hopefully, your teams are shining as bright as the star of your Xmas trees.   I have 1 of my 3 teams left, but with Kamara pooping his diaper last night, I’m not liking my chances of getting to the finals.  But what I do like is this time of year, especially these useless bowl games where players are opting out literally 1 hour before kickoff.  You have to be really on your game to handicap college football right now.  I hope each and every one of you guys has an awesome holiday season, and may the points and yards fall your way!