DFS Picks For NFL Week 3

Week 3 NFL DFS Picks

Welcome to Week 3 of the NFL season! This is the week when things start to become clearer in terms of contending teams and pretending teams. Allow me to provide some further clarity from a DFS perspective as I smell a banger lineup for this weekend!

Surprisingly, this week’s slate only features one game between teams that are both 0-2 (Chargers/Vikings) and one game between two 2-0 sides (the Monday Night Eagles/Buccaneers game). The NFL strives for parity, and for the most part, the 2023 season definitely looks the part. The Week 3 point spreads are much higher than they were last week, and the point totals are also way higher (this is a byproduct of the overs hitting at a 13-3 clip).  There should be some regression to the mean in terms of scoring, but I have my eye on some really bad defenses on DraftKings DFS.

Since DraftKings is a full point PPR (points per reception) format, the bulk of your funds needs to be channeled towards the best WRs.  Here’s the initial blueprint for where I try to allocate the $50,000:

QB: Initial Goal $6,000

RB: Initial Goal $12,000 (average $6,000 per RB)

WR: Initial Goal $19,000 (average $6,334 per WR)

TE: Initial Goal $4,000

Flex: Initial Goal $6,000

DST: Initial Goal $3,000

The Clear Cut QB Choice: Kirk Cousins, MIN ($6,900) 

Well, so much for sticking to my initial QB budget, but at $6,900, Cousins is still a tremendous value. I mean, Justin Fields is $7,100 – how the heck is that even possible? Even though Minnesota has come out of the gates with an 0-2 start (and 0-3 is a distinct possibility), their passing offense has been anything but bottom of the barrel. In fact, the Vikings currently have the second-best passing attack in the NFL, only behind Tua’s Dolphins. Staring Cousins in the face this weekend is the NFL’s worst pass defense (worst overall D as well); the Chargers have relinquished 333 yards per game through the air. Even though Brandon Staley comes from the defensive side of the ball, he has done next to nothing translating that vast experience to his players. I don’t foresee Staley discovering electricity this week, but I do expect a constant barrage of fireworks. (Staley vs. Eberflus in being the first coach fired – this is getting hot and heavy!)

Who will the masses be taking at QB? I wouldn’t be a bit surprised if the DFS community locks in on either QB from this Chargers vs. Vikings matchup (Herbert is $7,500 – not worth the extra premium), but based on what happened last week, the more value-conscious entrant may look to Geno Smith ($5,700) or Mustache Mania (that’s Garnder Minshew at $5,100). We will politely pass on both of those options.

RB Choices: Jahmyr Gibbs, DET ($6,600) and Roschon Johnson, CHI ($4,700)

With David Montgomery clearly out this week, Jahmyr Gibbs will get his chance to be the workhorse, 3-down back.  In a PPR-friendly format, Gibbs has already been a prized commodity; against the Seahawks, he had 7 receptions on 9 targets.  Something to keep an eye on is Amon-Ra St Brown as he hasn’t practiced this week dealing with a potential turf toe.  Gibbs will have a large role in the Lions’ offensive game plan regardless, but the Falcons currently have the #2 defense against the pass (only allowing 133.5 yards/game). Without St Brown, the other WR options are pretty lackluster, and that could mean even more dump off/check-down passes to Gibbs.  I do think Gibbs will be chalky, but other than Travis Etienne at $6,900, there isn’t too much to get excited about at that price point. It makes sense to follow the crowd here.

Roschon Johnson, on the other hand, won’t be taken by anyone, so why would I make this recommendation? Because of Cousins, this lineup needs a value option, and to put it mildly, the Bears are an absolute dumpster fire. It’s never a good sign when Justin Fields has already thrown his coaching staff under the bus. Playing Kansas City this weekend won’t cure what ails this team as most folks, including myself, think that the Chiefs will take this game and use this opportunity to get their offense on track. I made the point last week that a strong running game is the best friend to a rookie QB, but that is also the case for a struggling QB as well. 

Khalil Herbert has been super underwhelming to start, but the Bears’ O-line hasn’t done him any favors. Johnson is a much bigger back and can take the pounding better. With this anticipated blowout comes lots of garbage time; this could be the opportunity that Johnson needs to showcase all of his skills and firmly ensconce himself as the lead back going forward. Do recall that Johnson had six catches on seven targets along with a rushing TD Week 1 against Green Bay. I think this is a sneaky good play! Most folks will jump on Chargers RB Joshua Kelley as their value back ($5,400) if Ekeler is out again; we will still clear of Mr Kelley as I’m still not sold on him.

Other Viable RB Options

Travis Etienne, JAX ($6,900) – My concern last week was Tank Bigsby may vulture the goal line carries, but Tank didn’t even see the field. Against Houston, look for Jacksonville to establish their offensive footing.

Javonte Williams, DEN ($5,500) – I’m not sure what the heck is going on with Denver other than Russell Wilson stinking it up. The Broncos coughed up their 21-3 lead in record time, and Williams barely touched the ball in the second half. Look for Denver to try and take the pressure off of Russ and play keep away from the high-octane Dolphins offense.

Jaylen Warren, PIT ($4,900) – This is my other sneaky, value RB pick as my Spidey Sense tells me that the Steelers want to SSU (Shake Stuff Up) with their offense.  Despite popular perception that Najae Harris is the better Pittsburgh RB, Warren is the more explosive back and better pass catcher. Look for Pittsburgh to get Warren more involved and provide that spark!

WR Choices: Justin Jefferson, MIN ($9,300), CeeDee Lamb DAL ($7,700) and Johnathan Mingo, CAR ($3,400)

Flex Choice: Drake London, ATL ($5,000)

There’s not much I need to say about why to take Justin Jefferson, even at that insane price tag. The Minnesota stack of Cousins/Jefferson against the league’s worst defense in a highly anticipated track meet – enough said!

Ceedee Lamb definitely caught my eye last weekend as he was able to grab 11 balls for 143 yards against the Jets’ elite secondary. I definitely drank the Kool-Aid thinking that New York could hang with Dallas, but this was the game were Lamb showed he absolutely deserves to be in the elite WR discussion (currently No. 6 in receiving yards with 220). Arizona gives up 234 yards per game through the air; the only issue with taking Lamb is how quickly does Dallas crush the Cards. I still think Lamb will get his share and score at least one TD; the juice is worth the squeeze. I think the DFS community will also share this same sentiment.

Selecting these two Rolls Royce options has me looking for another diamond in the rough.  Look no further than Jonathan Mingo this week. The problem with Mingo has not been getting targets as he had 8 last week against that vaunted Saints’ pass D. Carolina had their full complement of receivers last week, but Mingo was still sought out early and often. The issue has been Bryce Young not getting into a groove against his divisional foes. Young missed practice with an ankle injury, but even if he doesn’t play, “The Red Rifle” Andy Dalton is more than capable of filling in, especially going against a bottom three Seattle pass defense (a whopping 325 yards per game). This will be the weekend that Mingo scores his first TD!

Drake London will most likely be selected by the majority of entrants with that $5,000 tag.  Even though Desmond Ridder has looked awful behind center, the fact remains that London was able to muster up six catches for 67 yards and a TD against Green Bay last week.  Detroit’s pass D is approaching bottom 5 levels (are you sensing a theme?), and London’s prior week’s stats are something that should be approached at an absolute minimum.

The other WRs that immediately come to mind that the pool majority will take include Keenan Allen, LAC ($7,600), Puka Nacua ($6,100), and Jordan Addison, MIN ($5,300).

Other Viable WR/Flex Options

Puka Nacua, LAR ($6,100) – His record setting two-game performance is not a fluke at all.  He was a fantastic WR at BYU; he just couldn’t stay healthy. Puka was gimpy heading into last week but still caught 15 balls. Nacua is definitely an option if you wanted to go down from Lamb to get a little better RB than Roschon or Jaylen Warren.

Mike Williams, LAC ($6,000) – It totally makes sense to have some Charger representation in what can easily be the week’s highest scoring game. Plus, it’s great to capitalize taking Williams while he is healthy.

Nico Collins, HOU ($5,300) – I said it last week, and I’ll say it again: Collins is one of my favorite, under-the-radar receivers in the league.  He blew up to the tune of nine catches for 146 yards and a TD last week against the Colts. The Jacksonville pass D is currently down there with the likes of the Lions and Bears, oh my!

TE Choice: Dalton Kincaid, BUF ($3,400)

This is Kincaid’s turn to be the value option in my revolving TE carousel. He’s had four and five catches respectively but is still looking for that ever elusive first TD. Let’s time that TD perfectly this week!  Dawson Knox has that “Q” tag on him as well – surprise, surprise!

Other Viable TE Options

Jake Ferguson, DAL ($3,600)

Pat Freiermuth, PIT ($3,600)

D/ST Choice: Jets ($2,800)

Take two with the Jets’ D! The Jets have six sacks, four turnovers, and a punt return TD over the first two weeks. New England still has injury problems on their o-line; they have given up an average of three sacks/game. The Pats also have four turnovers on the season. I envision this game being the rock fight that didn’t happen last week in Dallas. This game has 17-13 written all over it!

Entire Team - $49,800 out of $50,000 - $200 under budget

There isn’t too much egg on my face after last weekend. The other viable WR options of DJ Moore and Collins did outperform the line-up choices, but I nailed the QB options rather well. The Texans got down too much too soon, and that rendered Pierce pretty useless. This week’s iteration has a nice mix of fantasy stalwarts and speculative plays. Whether you go tete-a-tete against your friends or enter a giant tourney pool, I definitely feel strong about this week’s selections. Here’s to everyone crushing their entries, and enjoy the games!

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