Week 14 TNF Same-Game Parlay Picks: Packers vs. Lions

Top Parlay Picks for Packers vs. Lions on Thursday Night Football

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The stage is set for a primetime clash as the Packers (9-3) visit the Lions (11-1) on Thursday night in a battle between NFC North rivals. Detroit enters as the heavy favorite to secure the division title, sitting at -500 on BetMGM, while Green Bay remains in the hunt for a Wild Card spot as the postseason race heats up.

Both teams come into this matchup riding the high of Week 13 victories. The Lions held off the Bears for their 10th straight win, while the Packers made a statement with a key road victory against the Dolphins.

I’ve cooked up a big same-game parlay for tonight’s action:

David Montgomery 50+ Rushing Yards & Josh Jacobs 60+ Rushing Yards & Jared Goff U30.5 Pass Attempts & Under 51.5 (+750, DraftKings)

David Montgomery’s production has been inconsistent this season—one week he’s racking up over 70 yards, and the next he’s held under 40. But when it comes to facing the Packers, Montgomery has delivered. In their two matchups in 2022, he posted 121 yards and 61 yards. Fast forward to 2023, and he recorded 121 yards and 71 yards—even with Jahmyr Gibbs sharing the backfield workload. In their Week 9 meeting this season, Montgomery added another solid performance with 73 yards. While he and Gibbs have been nearly interchangeable in Detroit’s offense, Montgomery has outperformed his counterpart in all three head-to-head matchups as teammates, which is why I’m backing him over Gibbs.

Packers running back Josh Jacobs also had a great performance in their recent meeting. He had his most efficient performance of the season with 13 carries for 95 yards, equalling 7.3 yards per carry. Detroit's run defense has been solid all season, but Jacobs has topped 60+ yards in all but two games this year.

I’m expecting a run-heavy game, especially from the Lions with their dynamic backfield duo, which should result in fewer pass attempts for Jared Goff. While he’s topped 30.5 pass attempts in his last two games, he had fallen below this line in eight straight before that and nine of his last 10 overall. That stretch includes the 22 attempts he logged against Green Bay in early November.

If both teams lean on the ground game as I anticipate, it’ll keep the clock running and limit the number of possessions, which sets the stage for the under to hit. These teams have cashed the under in four of their six combined divisional matchups this season, and with this being their second meeting of the year, both coaching staffs know what to expect. To add a bit more safety, I’m buying a point and moving the total to 52 to avoid the key number of 51.

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