NFL Anytime Touchdown & First TD Picks for Week 18

As the NFL regular season comes to a close, Week 18 offers plenty of intrigue with playoff berths on the line, player incentives in focus, and touchdown props presenting strong betting opportunities. From Derrick Henry chasing history in Baltimore to Geno Smith and Jaxon Smith-Njigba aiming to break Seahawks records, there’s no shortage of compelling storylines. Let’s break down the best anytime and first touchdown scorer bets for the week.

Ravens RB Derrick Henry 1st TD Scorer vs. Browns: +275, BetMGM

This one is pretty obvious, which makes it a bit scary, but it still has cashed quite often this season regardless of how popular it has been. In fact, Henry has scored the first touchdown in seven of his 16 games played this season, which is a remarkable rate for this prop. His ATTD price is unbettable unless you parlay it, but I want to have something on Henry to get into the endzone without that kind of risk, even if this price is pretty nuts as well.

The Ravens are a -20.5 favorite in the game, which is unheard of really in the NFL. They have every incentive to win this game and not let off the gas, which is why it is lined as such. Henry has even more of an incentive, as he needs a single touchdown to break Jamal Lewis’ Ravens single-season record from 2003. He needs three of them to pass Jim Brown for the sixth most all-time, so getting him in the endzone will be a priority for Baltimore for a number of reasons.

Jet WR Davante Adams 1st TD Scorer vs. Dolphins: +750,BetMGM

I am actually betting on the New York Jets again this weekend, which is disgusting considering the Dolphins actually have something to play for, but backing Tyler Huntly in any situation is not very appealing to me. Sure, Aaron Rodgers looked even worse last outing, but this could be his last game ever. Even if it is not, he’ll want to have a strong performance in order for some desperate team to sign him for next season. I think he digs deep and tries to be as close to prime Rodgers as possible for this contest.

Nothing screams prime Rodgers like a touchdown to his old friend Davante Adams, who I think scores here. Will he be the first touchdown? That I can’t say for certain, but the value is there, and I think they hook up here for what could possibly be their last game playing together. It is worth a small shot at 7.5/1 odds.

Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase ATTD vs. Steelers: -145, DraftKings

You can pair this with his 80+ receiving yards to get +116 odds, if you don’t want to pay this juice, and that is what I am doing. Simply put, not only do the Bengals have to win this game if they want any chance at all to make the playoffs, but Chase is also looking to secure the triple crown of receiving here. He leads the league in receptions, yards, and touchdowns at this point, and that is obviously something that would be huge for his career.

He’s also just a single touchdown away from tying the Bengals single-season record held by Carl Pickens in 1996, and two away from breaking the record. There are plenty of reasons to see him get a ton of attention here, and he’ll need to have a big game for both his team and personal reasons.

Seahawks WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba ATTD vs. Rams: +129, Caesars

You can play this as is, or up the ante by also backing Geno Smith here as well. There is plenty of reason to think the Seahawks are going to be airborne in this game, passing the ball as much as possible. Geno Smith needs 186 passing yards for a $2M bonus, and needs to finish with at least a 69.75% completion percentage for another $2M bonus, which he currently has with a 70.2% completion percentage. He can also break his own Seahawks record for passing yards in a season, which he set in 2022 with 4,282 yards.

Smith-Njigba needs four receptions to tie Tyler Lockett’s Seahawks record of 100 receptions set in 2020. He needs 182 receiving yards to tie DK Metcalf’s Seahawks record of 1,303 yards also set in 2020. There is every reason to think they will be passing a lot, and that means his chances at a touchdown increase dramatically.

Broncos WR Courtland Sutton ATTD vs. Chiefs: +135, Caesars

This is quite risky, as everyone and their brother knows that Sutton needs 82 receiving yards to get a $500k bonus. As a result, 99% of the money at some books is on his over receiving yards prop. Obviously, Sutton is going to want to achieve this goal, but that would also mean Vegas will take quite the hit. Now, it is still possible he gets a touchdown without going over his yardage prop, and that could be the way to play him this weekend with everyone else on his yardage.

If the game becomes a blowout with Carson Wentz starting for Kansas City, then Denver will likely try to force him the ball. The Broncos need to win this game to make the playoffs, so there is an incentive for him to play well no matter what.

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