NFL Week 18 Sharp Betting Picks

The NFL regular season wraps up in Week 18, and the betting markets are moving fast as playoff implications and player availability shape the odds. With sharp action influencing key matchups, finding value on the board becomes a matter of timing and insight. This week’s focus includes the Seahawks’ advantageous spot against a Rams team resting its starters and the Jets’ underdog potential against the Dolphins. Let’s dive into the details and uncover where I found value.

Seahawks -3 at Rams: -111, Caesars

This line isn’t available anymore, but I’m posting what I bet in this article, and I took the Seahawks at -3 on Caesars a couple days ago for -111 odds. They are now -6.5 pretty much everywhere in the market, which is a very substantial move, but one that is warranted based on the information we now have. I was able to get ahead of the line move based mostly off of speculation, which is a gamble in itself.

The Rams announced that they wouldn’t be playing any of their starters in this game, which obviously would give Seattle a pretty large advantage. Los Angeles has no reason to risk the health of their players, as they are locked into their playoff spot, so Matthew Stafford and company will be taking the day off. This isn’t to say the team won’t still be competitive, and laying -6.5 is always a tough thing to do with any road team. Still, they should be favored here by a decent margin with such an advantage.

At this point, I would consider taking the Seahawks moneyline and combining it with another game that you feel safe with. For instance, combining it with Packers ML against the Bears, you get a decent price of -144 on DraftKings. I’d say it is high unlikely that either of those teams lose their game outright, so I would be comfortable with that.

Jets +1.5 vs. Dolphins: -117, BetRivers

I keep doing this every week virtually, and overall, it hasn’t really been the most profitable wager of all time. However, once again, I have to go back to the Jets here looking at this line. In fact, the Jets are actually favorites at some books right now over the Dolphins. This just tells me that the books have no idea who should actually be the favorite in this game, but the public sure does. Everyone and their brother is lining up to fade Aaron Rodgers and the dysfunctional Jets against the Dolphins, who are somehow still in the playoff hunt.

The Dolphins have won and covered in two straight games, while the Jets have lost two straight and were just blown out of the water by the Bills 40-14. You can’t tell me this line isn’t begging people to bet Miami. It’s practically a giant sign saying “please bet this!”, which could be the true intention of the books. Who would want to back the Jets at a pick ‘em right now against a team that legit has something to play for still?

I would like to, that’s who. Maybe I will be one of the few backing them, but I also love to fade the Dolphins who I think are a massive fraud this season. In fact, Miami is just 2-8 ATS over their last 10 games, with both of those covers the last two weeks. I think it is time to fade them, and this line tells me that as well.