Top NFL Spread Picks on BetMGM for this week

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Houston Texans 🆚 New York Giants

🕑 Football, NFL Last H2H: 28:10 Home win for Houston Texans

Last match home team: 34:31 Away win for Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Last match away team: 27:34 Home loss for New York Giants vs. New Orleans Saints

Based on my search of TeamRankings.com, here are the ATS (Against The Spread) Records for both teams:

Houston Texans - ATS Record
10-9-0 (52.6% Cover Rate)

• ATS +/-: +4.5
• Margin of Victory (MOV): 6.4
• Ranked 12th overall in ATS performance

New York Giants - ATS Record
9-8-0 (52.9% Cover Rate)

• ATS +/-: +1.5
• Margin of Victory (MOV): -3.4
• Ranked 11th overall in ATS performance

🚨 Spread ODDS Home: -122 (BetMGM Sportsbook)
🚨 Our Spread Prediction: Away win for New York Giants (+10.0 points), -122

The Texans come into this game fresh off a 34-31 road win at Jacksonville, showing they can close tight games on the road; the Giants last played a 27-34 home loss to New Orleans. The most recent head-to-head was a 28-10 home win for Houston. Both teams have nearly identical ATS cover rates (Texans 52.6%, Giants 52.9%), so neither side has been dominant against the spread this year. Houston’s positive MOV (+6.4) and ATS +/- (+4.5) suggest they win by bigger margins when they do, while New York’s negative MOV (-3.4) indicates closer or losing results despite a similar cover percentage.

Prediction-wise, BetMGM lists the home spread odds at -122. Our model favors the Giants on the spread, projecting an away cover at +10.0 with the same -122 juice attached. The pick leans on New York’s propensity to keep games close and Houston’s variance: Houston wins by bigger margins sometimes, but their FAR stronger projections (higher expected wins) are counterbalanced by matchup specifics and the large number we’re giving New York. With nearly even ATS records, this line suggests the Giants can be taken at plus points for value.

New York Jets 🆚 Miami Dolphins

🕑 Football, NFL Last H2H: 34:10 Away win for Miami Dolphins

Last match home team: 19:26 Away loss for New York Jets vs. New England Patriots
Last match away team: 24:31 Home loss for Miami Dolphins vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Miami Dolphins - ATS Record
8-9-0 (47.1% Cover Rate)

• ATS +/-: -1.6

New York Jets - ATS Record
7-9-1 (43.8% Cover Rate)

• ATS +/-: -5.4

🚨 Spread ODDS Home: -122 (BetMGM Sportsbook)
🚨 Our Spread Prediction: Away win for Miami Dolphins (+5.5 points), -122

The recent H2H saw Miami beat the Jets 34-10, and current form shows both teams struggling: the Jets most recently lost 19-26 to New England on the road while Miami dropped a 24-31 home game to Cincinnati. ATS numbers underline that neither team has been reliable against the spread — Dolphins cover 47.1% and the Jets only 43.8%. The Jets’ ATS +/- of -5.4 portrays them as a team that frequently underperforms expectations, while Miami is slightly negative but closer to breakeven.

For this matchup BetMGM lists the home side at -122. Our spread prediction favors Miami as the away team at +5.5 with -122 juice. The rationale is simple: Miami’s head-to-head dominance and slightly better ATS profile give them the edge to cover a modest plus-number, while the Jets’ weak ATS history and recent loss trend make them a less attractive spread bet. Given both teams rank poorly in predictive ratings, this is more a value play on Miami’s better matchup history than a confidence-heavy projection.

Detroit Lions 🆚 Green Bay Packers

🕑 Football, NFL Last H2H: 31:24 Away win for Green Bay Packers

Last match home team: 45:21 Away win for Detroit Lions vs. Arizona Cardinals
Last match away team: 23:13 Home win for Green Bay Packers vs. Dallas Cowboys

Detroit Lions - ATS Record
8-9-0 (47.1% Cover Rate)

• ATS +/-: +0.3
• Margin of Victory (MOV): 4.0

Green Bay Packers - ATS Record
7-11-0 (38.9% Cover Rate)

• ATS +/-: -2.0
• Margin of Victory (MOV): 1.5

🚨 Spread ODDS Home: -114 (BetMGM Sportsbook)
🚨 Our Spread Prediction: Home win for Detroit Lions (-3.0 points), -114

The Packers won the last head-to-head 31-24, but recent forms are mixed: Detroit bounced for a big 45-21 road win over Arizona, showing explosive scoring potential, while Green Bay beat Dallas 23-13 at home in a solid defensive outing. ATS metrics favor Detroit: Lions cover 47.1% with a positive ATS +/- (+0.3) and an MOV of 4.0, indicating they generally win more comfortably than their record suggests. Green Bay’s 38.9% cover rate and negative ATS differential point to struggles covering lines despite some key wins.

BetMGM’s home spread is -114. Our pick is Detroit at -3.0 with -114 juice, backing the Lions to hold serve as home favorites. The reasoning: Detroit’s superior recent offensive showing and better ATS profile suggest they’re more likely to beat a modest spread, while Green Bay’s weaker cover rate makes them a risk against a short number. This is a confidence-lean toward Detroit’s scoring consistency and slightly stronger predictive projections.