Top NFL Spread Picks on BetMGM for this week

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Jacksonville Jaguars 🆚 Philadelphia Eagles
🕑 Football, NFL
Last H2H: 28:23 Home win for Philadelphia Eagles

Last match home team: 22:17 Away win for Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Last match away team: 20:24 Home loss for Philadelphia Eagles vs. Los Angeles Rams

Based on the information I found, here are the ATS (Against The Spread) Records for both teams:

ATS Records from TeamRankings

Jacksonville Jaguars

• ATS Record: 12-6-0
• Cover Percentage: 66.7%
• ATS +/-: +6.1
• Ranking: 3rd in the NFL

Philadelphia Eagles

• ATS Record: 10-8-0
• Cover Percentage: 55.6%
• ATS +/-: -1.5
• Ranking: 8th in the NFL

Current Season Context (2026)

Jacksonville Jaguars are performing well this season with a 3-1 record (some sources show variations depending on timing). They rank highly in defensive performance and have been covering spreads consistently.

Philadelphia Eagles have a 2-2 record and are currently dealing with offensive struggles. According to prediction information I found, when these teams face each other, the Jacksonville Jaguars are 4.5-point favorites over the Philadelphia Eagles ahead of their 9:30 a.m. ET kickoff at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London, England on Sunday, Oct. 11.

The Jaguars' strong 66.7% ATS cover rate makes them one of the top teams in the league for bettors this season, while the Eagles have been more inconsistent at covering spreads at 55.6%.

🚨 Spread ODDS Home: -110 BetMGM Sportsbook,
🚨 Our Spread Prediction: Home win for Jacksonville Jaguars (+1.5 points), -110

The Jaguars come into this meeting off a 22-17 away win over the Cincinnati Bengals, while the Eagles most recently suffered a 20-24 home loss to the Los Angeles Rams. The last head-to-head between these clubs was a 28-23 home win for the Philadelphia Eagles. Using season results, Jacksonville are 3-1 this year (75.0% win rate) and Philadelphia are 2-2 (50.0% win rate); as betting indicators, Jacksonville also have a 66.7% ATS cover rate and Philadelphia a 55.6% cover rate. Both teams have recent form swings: Jacksonville’s defense has been stingy, and Philadelphia’s offense has shown inconsistency.

Prediction and line context: BetMGM lists the spread as Home -110 (per the tip block), and the market earlier showed Jacksonville as roughly 4.5-point favorites. Our stated spread prediction from the prompt is a Home win for Jacksonville (+1.5), -110. Given Jacksonville’s strong ATS performance and recent victory, the pick follows the prompt’s lean toward Jacksonville covering/leaning to win, with the price at -110 on the favored side.

New England Patriots 🆚 Las Vegas Raiders
🕑 Football, NFL
Last H2H: 20:13 Away win for Las Vegas Raiders

Last match home team: 29:26 Away win for New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills
Last match away team: 27:30 Home loss for Las Vegas Raiders vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Perfect! Now I have comprehensive information about both teams' ATS records and predictions. Let me summarize what I found:

ATS Records from TeamRankings.com

Based on the ATS trends page at https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/trends/ats_trends/, here are the current season records:

New England Patriots

• ATS Record: 13-6-1
• Cover %: 68.4%
• ATS +/-: +6.2
• Rank: 2nd in the NFL

Las Vegas Raiders

• ATS Record: 7-10-0
• Cover %: 41.2%
• ATS +/-: -6.3
• Rank: 26th in the NFL

Season Projections

New England Patriots

• Final Record: 9.8-7.2, Make Playoffs: 62.9%, Win Super Bowl: 4.3%
• Most Likely Record (50th percentile): 10-7

Las Vegas Raiders

• Final Record: 5.8-11.2, Make Playoffs: 10.8%, Win Super Bowl: 0.1%
• Most Likely Record (50th percentile): 6-11

The Patriots are significantly outperforming the Raiders against the spread this season, covering nearly 70% of their games compared to the Raiders' 41%.

🚨 Spread ODDS Home: -111 BetMGM Sportsbook,
🚨 Our Spread Prediction: Home win for New England Patriots (-3.5 points), -111

New England last played a 29-26 away win over the Buffalo Bills, while Las Vegas most recently lost 27-30 at home to the Kansas City Chiefs. Their most recent head-to-head saw the Raiders win 20-13 on the road. For win percentages, the Patriots show strong results in ATS and form — their ATS cover percentage is 68.4% (an excellent indicator), while the Raiders are at a 41.2% ATS cover rate. If using simple season wins as an indicator (where available), New England’s trajectory and predictive projections have them as a solid above-.500 team; Las Vegas projects lower and has had struggles defensively.

Prediction and line context: The prompt lists the spread odds as Home -111 at BetMGM, with our spread prediction showing a Home win for New England Patriots (-3.5), -111. Given New England’s very strong ATS performance (13-6-1) and the Raiders’ poor cover rate, the pick aligns with backing the Patriots to cover a modest spread at the listed -111 price. The recent close win vs Buffalo shows the Patriots can grind out results, while the Raiders’ narrow loss to KC highlights defensive gaps.

Pittsburgh Steelers 🆚 Indianapolis Colts
🕑 Football, NFL
Last H2H: 27:20 Home win for Pittsburgh Steelers

Last match home team: 24:27 Away loss for Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cleveland Browns
Last match away team: 30:13 Away win for Indianapolis Colts vs. Washington Commanders

Based on the information I found from TeamRankings, here are the ATS (Against the Spread) Records for both teams:

Pittsburgh Steelers ATS Record

The Pittsburgh Steelers have an ATS record of 9-9-0 with a 50.0% cover percentage, a margin of victory (MOV) of -0.8, and an ATS +/- of -0.5 . This ranks them 15th overall in the NFL.

Indianapolis Colts ATS Record

The Indianapolis Colts have an ATS record of 8-7-2 with a 53.3% cover percentage, a margin of victory (MOV) of 3.2, and an ATS +/- of +2.5 . This ranks them 9th overall in the NFL.

Additional Context from Prediction Pages:

Pittsburgh Steelers:

• The Steelers' most likely scenario projects them to finish 8-9, with playoff odds at 36.1% and a 14.0% chance to win their division
• Their predictive rating is -2.2 (ranked #24 in the NFL)

Indianapolis Colts:

• The Colts' most likely scenario projects them to finish 8-9, with playoff odds at 34.7% and a 17.6% chance to win their division
• Their predictive rating is 2.4 (ranked #14 in the NFL)

The Colts have been slightly better against the spread this season with a positive ATS differential, while the Steelers have been exactly .500 in covering spreads.

🚨 Spread ODDS Home: +120 BetMGM Sportsbook,
🚨 Our Spread Prediction: Away win for Indianapolis Colts (-1.0 points), +120

Pittsburgh’s last outing was a 24-27 home loss to the Cleveland Browns, while Indianapolis arrived off a 30-13 road win at the Washington Commanders. The last head-to-head meeting was a 27-20 home win for the Pittsburgh Steelers. For win/cover indicators, Pittsburgh are 9-9 ATS (50.0% cover rate) this season and the Colts are 8-7-2 ATS (53.3% cover rate). The Steelers have had mixed results, losing a tight one to Cleveland, whereas the Colts’ convincing win over Washington suggests their offense can click and their defense has been opportunistic.

Prediction and line context: BetMGM lists Home at +120 (per the prompt), and our recommended spread prediction is an Away win for Indianapolis Colts (-1.0), +120. Given the Colts’ slightly better ATS record and the Colts’ positive MOV, the prompt’s pick leans to Indianapolis to win or cover a narrow spread. The +120 price implies a decent value backing the away side in a matchup expected to be close.

If you want, I can convert these picks into implied probabilities, show alternative lines from other books, or give brief bankroll/hedge suggestions for each pick.