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KC -3 O/U 54

AFC South Odds Set To Swing Heavily Post Titans vs. Colts Battle

Indianapolis looks to defend home turf and create separation in the divisional race

All-Pro Reels, Flickr

Quick-Hitters

  • The Indianapolis Colts have managed to hit the over in five of their last six games. However, the 51-point line that's set for this contest is the second-largest they've faced.

  • The Tennessee Titans have struggled defensively this season. This has led to an over/under record of 7-2-1.

  • With both teams standing at 7-3, the Colts (-160) are favored to win the AFC South over the Titans (+125), per FanDuel Sportsbook.

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Divisional Odds, Over/Under Line

The Indianapolis Colts pulled off one of the most impressive wins of the season last week. The trailed the Green Bay Packers by two touchdowns at halftime, but managed to come back and win 34-31 in overtime. With the win, Indy has now won four of their last five, remaining tied with the Tennessee Titans atop the AFC South. Both teams are in good shape to earn a playoff spot, but the Colts have a challenging schedule in December, so they need to stay hot.

With both teams standing at 7-3, Indianapolis (-160) is favored to win the AFC South over Tennessee (+125), per FanDuel Sportsbook.

Outside of a 10-point performance against the Baltimore Ravens a few weeks ago, the Indianapolis offense has been coming on strong lately. Whether it’s Jonathan Taylor, Jordan Wilkins, or Nyheim Hines, the Colts are fielding quite the ground game. That has helped Philip Rivers, who has 10 touchdown passes and just three interceptions over his last five games.

The Colts have managed to hit the over in five of their last six games, albeit with an average line of 48.7 over the span. The 51-point line against Tennessee is the second time Indianapolis has seen a point total of 50 points or more this season.

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Struggling Defense, Leaning On Henry

The Titans are breathing a huge sigh of relief after knocking off the Ravens in overtime last week. A loss for them would have been the team’s fourth defeat in five games. One could argue that the Titans have a slightly easier schedule down the stretch, but they can't lose to the Colts twice in the same season.

It’s no secret that Derrick Henry has been a vital part of the Tennessee offense this year. The deeper we get into the season, the more the Titans are likely to lean on Henry, which worked to perfection last year. Henry has rushed for over 100 yards in three of his last four games. Coincidentally, the over has hit in three of their last four.

Unfortunately for the Titans, the defense remains a reasonable concern heading into late-November. They're middle of the pack in regard to points allowed and have one of the worst pass rushes in the NFL, particularly for a team in the playoff race. Their defensive issues were on full display when they gave up 34 points to the Colts at home a couple of weeks ago. Tennessee needs to do a better job of stopping the run and putting pressure on a largely immobile quarterback if they have any hope of getting a different result.

This defensive lapse has seen Tennessee tally a 7-2-1 over/under record this season.

Take The Home Team?

The onus in this game is on Tennessee to make adjustments from their first meeting. The defense struggled to contain the run while Ryan Tannehill also put together a poor performance. Obviously, the 7-3 Titans are capable of playing much better, but Henry can only carry the Titans so far; at some point, Tannehill and the defense needs to play their part.

While the Titans (+160) have done well on the road this year, the Colts (-190) have been great at home. If you plan to bet on this division, especially the underdog, then you may want to lock it in before this game, as the odds will change fairly dramatically afterward.

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