Hopefully, everyone had a very profitable day betting on the Super Bowl yesterday. If you faded the public favorite Philadelphia Eagles and the under, you definitely did. The Public is usually a disaster to tail on most bets, so I would recommend fading them for the most part. It doesn't always work, but I have found the public is usually a death sentence for most bets. Last week, fading the public had us up on the week, so let's see if we can do it again.
Let's take a look at the public's favorite bets so far today. BetQL can easily help you find these public bets yourself without waiting for an article, and therefore possibly losing a valuable number. Sign up today and you'll have access to this tool, as well as finding out which sides and totals the sharps are on, along with our best plays of the day. Let's find some winners!
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Oh, wow, how shocking is it that the public is betting on the Golden State Warriors at home against the Washington Wizards? Answer: not even close to shocking. A massive 86% of tickets in this game are backing the Warriors, so what could possibly go wrong for them against the long-time losing Wizards?
Washington has lost three of the last five games but has won the last two. It is looking like Kyle Kuzma will be out for this game for the Wizards, but so is Steph Curry for Golden State. Golden State has lost two in a row, so the public is definitely thinking that the Warriors couldn't possibly lose three in a row. It's the Golden State Warriors! Well, this team is .500 on the year and is without its best player.
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Does the model agree with the public here on this NBA game? Check it out below:
This certainly isn't the best college basketball slate, but we do have a few games that could be pretty entertaining contests. This is one of those, and yup, the public is backing the favorite at home to win by seven. A whopping 79% of the tickets in this game are on the ranked Baylor Bears, and that is very unsurprising. The ranked team almost always will be the public bet if they are taking on an unranked team.
Now, the Bears could certainly win this game at home by seven points, it isn't impossible. However, this is how the sportsbooks always win. The public takes a strong side on a bet, and that bet loses, so they make a lot of money. West Virginia has proven to be resilient this season and have a few big wins under its belt. Can the Mountaineers keep this one within six points?
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Does our model agree with the public in this game? Find out below:
The public is also betting on the Calgary Flames as massive -165 favorites on the road against the Ottawa Senators. I like the Flames, and I think they will make a push in the second half of the season, but this is just too much juice to be laying here with them on the road. The Senators are a team that I think people should pay more attention to in the second half.
As of this writing, a massive 84% of all the moneyline bets are on the Flames to win. Can they win this game? Absolutely, they are a good hockey team that can beat anyone that they play in my opinion. I just think the value in this game lies with the home team, as the Senators should get a bit more respect for having a positive shot differential. The public certainly doesn't care, as Ottawa has a worse record and generally have an unfavorable public outlook.
See if the BetQL model is on this side as well below:
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