Three big games across the Big 12 and ACC highlight Monday's college basketball slate. Check out where I think we can find some value and what our BetQL model likes.
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Miami has won four straight games and is just a half-game back from leading the ACC. The Hurricanes have only lost four games in conference play and while each of those came on the road, those losses all came by a combined 13 points, which makes me believe they can keep this one close tonight. Miami also has the better backcourt duo in Isaiah Wong and Nigel Pack. Those two have been far more consistent than Caleb Love and RJ Davis. Miami is also the better 3-point shooting team, shooting nearly 40% from deep, and is the 12th-best team in the country at converting second-chance opportunities, according to Haslametrics. Take the points with the Hurricanes tonight.
My pick: Miami +5.5
West Virginia is in a tough schedule spot tonight. It got destroyed at Texas on Saturday and now heads to Waco to face an equally tough Baylor squad. The Bears have the best offense in the nation, according to KenPom, and lead the conference in offensive rebounding, turnovers and steal percentages. Their offense is going to be too much for the Mountaineers mediocre defense, which has struggled to contain teams that play fast and efficiently. The Bears are also 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games while West Virginia has failed to cover in each of its last two Big 12 road games.
My Pick: Baylor -6.5
Texas' offense has looked elite lately, scoring 94 points against West Virginia on Saturday and putting up at least 75 points in five of its last six games. Going up against Texas Tech tonight, the Longhorns should have no problem scoring on one of the worst defensive teams in the conference. Texas takes great care of the basketball and gets to the free-throw line at an extremely high rate. Meanwhile, the Red Raiders allow teams to shoot the highest percentage from 2-point range of any team in the Big 12 and give up a ton of offensive boards. Despite this game being in Lubbock, I like the Longhorns to have a big night on the offensive end.
My Pick: Texas Team Total Over 74.5
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