Top NBA Player Prop Values For Wednesday, Jan. 4

Top NBA Player Prop Values

BetQL is your source for NBA best bets, sharp picks, live public data, player prop values, final score projections and so much more for today's games! Scroll down to take a look at three player prop values you should take advantage of, coupled with exclusive sportsbook offers. Here are my updated NBA records for all player prop total picks made here on BetQL:

NBA Player Prop Totals: 75-54 (58.1%)

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CJ McCollum Over 24.5 Points vs. Rockets

With Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram and Larry Nance Jr. all out, CJ McCollum is going to be a huge part of New Orleans’ offensive attack tonight. Per RotoGrinders’ free Court IQ tool, McCollum has had a 30.0% usage rate and averages 0.69 points per minute in the 302.9 minutes that he’s played with the aforementioned trio off the floor. At that level of production, he’d have to play 37 minutes to break 24.5 points in a normal matchup. However, this isn’t a normal matchup. The Rockets own the 3rd-worst Defensive Rating, have allowed an NBA-worst 17.2 fastbreak points per game and have surrendered an NBA-worst 28.11 points per game to opposing point guards. This is the best-possible matchup and an exploitable situation for McCollum tonight. I expect him to have a ceiling game as a scorer.

Draymond Green Over 14.5 Rebounds + Assists vs. Pistons

I’m not going to touch any scoring props for Draymond Green, but I do love this rebounds + assists prop today. Golden State’s forward has gone over this mark in four of his last five games and has averaged 18.8 in that span. The Pistons have the 2nd-worst Defensive Rating in the NBA this season and have allowed the 4th-most points in the paint, which means they give up a lot of easy, high-percentage looks. Since this Warriors offense involves a lot of off-ball screens and general movement off the ball, I can see Steve Kerr game-planning to get a lot of easy looks via cuts to the rim (with Draymond at the top of the key). In the aforementioned five-game set, all without Steph Curry like tonight, Green has had a whopping 17.4 rebounding chances and 15.2 potential assists per contest, on average. That highlights his upside tonight.

Steven Adams Over 24.5 Points + Rebounds vs. Hornets

Targeting opposing centers against the Hornets has been a profitable strategy this season. Charlotte has allowed an NBA-worst 17.15 rebounds per game on average to opposing centers, along with 25.21 points (3rd-most). The Hornets also own the league’s 5th-worst Defensive Rating and have the league’s worst Offensive Rating. Translation: they can’t defend and are the league’s least efficient team on the offensive end. With his primary backup Brandon Clarke out once again tonight, I expect Steven Adams to absolutely eat in the post. He’s put up an average of 32.0 (31, 31 and 34) points + rebounds per game over his last three contests and has most notably pulled down 21 and 23 boards over his last two outings. In that three-game set, he’s had an insane 30.3 rebounding chances per contest and I love his outlook tonight. Pray for Mason Plumlee.

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