NBA Play-In: Thunder vs. Timberwolves Predictions, Odds & Expert Picks

Thunder vs. Timberwolves Prediction

The Timberwolves will host the Thunder in the Western Conference's final game of the NBA play-in tournament. The loser of this game will be eliminated, while the winner will earn the No. 8 seed in the West and face the Denver Nuggets in the first round of the NBA playoffs.

Oklahoma City Thunder Outlook

The Thunder beat the Pelicans by five in their first play-in game despite being 5.5-point underdogs. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander finished with a team-high 32 points after only scoring 10 points in the first half, which was his lowest-scoring half of the season. Josh Giddey also put together an impressive performance, finishing with 31 points and 10 assists.

The Wolves won three of the four meetings against the Thunder this season, but two of those wins came in the first three games of the season. I'll be the first to admit that this isn't exactly a hard-hitting analysis, but those games took place a long time ago and a lot has changed since then. Plus, in the first meeting, they were tied heading into the fourth quarter and in their second meeting, SGA didn't play. In the latter two games of the season, the Thunder won by seven and lost by two. That loss also came with OKC shooting less than 30% from 3 and the Wolves shooting nearly 50% from the field and deep.

Over the last 10 games of the season, the Thunder have the better offense while the Wolves have the better defense. Both teams are nearly identical in pace, so their style of play matches up well with one another. That said, OKC ranks in the top 10 in the league, and higher than Minnesota, in points off of turnovers, second-chance points, fast-break points and points in the paint.

Minnesota Timberwolves Outlook

The Wolves played a pretty impressive game against the Lakers on Tuesday, yet ended up losing in overtime, 108-102. They'll now return home to Target Center to host the Thunder. The loss felt a little deflating for Minnesota on top of all the other distractions they've had going on. Rudy Gobert will return for this game after being suspended by the front office for punching teammate Kyle Anderson in the regular-season finale. On the other hand (pun absolutely intended), Jaden McDaniels, who is one of Minnesota's best defensive players, remains out after he punched a wall that same night and broke his hand.

While having Gobert back in the mix might sound like a good thing, Minnesota is actually slightly worse in both offensive and defensive rating while he's on the floor. Still, it's hard to argue that a three-time Defensive Player of the Year being in the game is a bad thing. Gobert's presence down low will be huge on the boards after the Thunder allowed Jonas Valanciunas to grab 18 rebounds, including six offensive boards. His rim protection will also be important in stopping SGA from getting to the basket.

I also expect a bounce-back game from Anthony Edwards after he shot 3-for-17 overall and 0-for-9 from deep, finishing with just nine points against the Lakers. Edwards shot 46.5% from the field and 39.0% from deep in March, so two straight games of poor shooting would be uncharacteristic of him.

Thunder vs. Timberwolves Best Bet

Overall, I don't like the state of the Timberwolves right now. It feels like they're holding on by a thread after a disappointing loss to the Lakers in a game they should have won. Because of that, I'm going to back the Thunder to cover +5.5, and will once again sprinkle a little on the moneyline.

OKC can score with the best of them, ranking fifth in the league at 117.5 points per game, and will have no problem playing an up-and-down game if that's what Minnesota tries to do. SGA and Giddey were incredible against the Pelicans and OKC is playing like a much more connected unit.

Part of the reason I liked the Thunder to get past New Orleans was because they are the underdogs, coming into that game with nothing to lose. Meanwhile, all the pressure is on Minnesota in this spot and if their season comes to a close on Friday, it's going to be an absolutely disastrous finish to the year.

I'll back the more connected team that can score at a high rate and is playing loose and confident.

My Picks: Thunder +5.5, ML (+190, Betway)

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