NBA Finals: Expert Picks For Heat vs. Nuggets Game 5

NBA Expert Picks & Predictions

The NBA Finals continue Monday with the Heat in Denver to take on the Nuggets in Game 5.

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Below, you’ll see the BetQL staff's breakdown for some of today's most intriguing NBA games from a betting perspective, including sleeper picks to consider as well as some epic sportsbook promotions to cash in on.

NBA Picks: Heat vs. Nuggets Game 5

Kate Constable: Heat 1Q +2.5 (-102, FanDuel)

The Heat have either been up or tied at the end of the first quarter in every game this series except Game 1. That means they’ve covered in their last three games and are 14-8 ATS in the first quarter throughout the postseason, which is why I like them to cover +2.5 to start tonight’s Game 5.

Miami has shot 34.4% from deep in the first quarter, which is a very welcomed sign for a team that lives and dies by the 3. If the Heat can get going from beyond the arc early, that’s not only going to help them cover this line, but will allow them to get in rhythm enough to hopefully stay in this game. And with the Heat trailing 3-1 in the series, anything but a fast start for them is going to give the Nuggets even more momentum in this game and force Miami to play from behind, which is not a position that Erik Spoelstra’s team wants to be in. Miami is going to come into this game locked in and ready to go from the jump, so I’ll take them to cover +2.5 in the first quarter.

Brad Pinkerton: Jamal Murray 5+ pts, Nikola Jokic 2+ ast in 1Q (+150, FanDuel)

I hate the randomness of this odds boost on FanDuel, but I'm playing it anyway. I think Denver is going to come out strong in this potential closeout game at home with their superstars in attack mode early. Let's just hope it's mostly Jokic feeding Murray (et al) and not the other way around.

Dan Karpuc: Nuggets -8.5 (-115, BetMGM)

After taking a 3-1 series lead, I fully expect Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray and the Nuggets to win the NBA Finals on their home court. As they proved in Miami, Denver is the better team on both ends of the court and stepped up with Jokic in foul trouble late in the fourth quarter, proving they were tougher and more resilient.

Miami has been unable to figure out ways to stop the two-man game of Jokic and Murray without giving up too much elsewhere; the Nuggets went 14-for-28 (50%) from 3 in Game 4. In Game 3, they won a different way, out-rebounding the Heat, 58-33, while cruising to a 15-point win despite shooting 5-of-18 (27.8%) from deep.

The mark of a championship team is figuring out how to win in different ways and that’s exactly what Denver has done in this series and throughout these playoffs. It will be very tough for Miami to go back to Denver and face the altitude and rowdy fans in what is one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA.

Lucy Burdge: Nuggets -8.5

Coming into this series, I liked the Nuggets to win it in five games and I see that being exactly how this plays out with a big Nuggets win tonight. The Nuggets have covered the spread in three of the four games so far in this series, including the last two. And I think they will cover again to close out this series tonight and win the NBA Finals!

Matt Horner: Caleb Martin o15.5 P+R+A (-120, BetMGM)

Martin was playing sick in Games 1 and 2, so I don’t count those as him playing at full strength. However, he’s back to full health and getting 30-plus minutes, and he’s on the floor at the end of games. He’s one of the few people who can guard Jamal Murray and create his own shot. I also don't see Tyler Herro playing tons of minutes in his return, so Martin should still have plenty of opportunities.

Best Sportsbook Offers & NBA Promos

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Heat-Nuggets OGP (+400):
Heat-Nuggets o198.5
Heat-Nuggets u218.5
Heat +19.5
Nuggets -6.5

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MORE: TOP NBA PLAYER PROPS

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