Three MLB Home Run Futures To Bet Now

Three MLB Home Run Futures To Bet Now

With spring training underway, many people will be flocking to the MLB futures market to get in their bets before the season begins, and lines will be moving quickly.

When betting on futures, you always want to find value in every play you make for a nice payout when the season comes to an end. That can be very hard to do in an ever-changing market, but we here at BetQL do our best to give you our favorite plays to cash out at season's end.

Here are my three favorite home run futures as of right now before the season begins:

Yankees' Juan Soto Home Run Leader (+2700, FanDuel)

One of the teams that I am backing this year is the Yankees, and I think we will see a big year out of their stars, especially on offense. Their newest acquisition, Juan Soto, should fit right in with the Bronx Bombers in 2024. While he obviously has immense power and can hit a home run in any MLB environment, the short porch in right field at Yankee Stadium makes this an ideal park for left-handed power bats, and Soto should see huge benefits playing there in half his games. Not only that, but he also gets more games at Rogers park and Fenway Park in the division, which both are hitter-friendly environments.

Soto will likely hit ahead of Aaron Judge, and while some won't think this matters, it is actually huge for Soto. He's drawn at least 100 walks each year over the last four seasons, and is usually a patient hitter. However, with Judge on deck after him, I would assume that teams would not want men on base when he comes to bat. Therefore, I expect teams to be much more aggressive when trying to get Soto out. The protection that Judge gives should aid him in getting pitches to hit.

I think there is plenty of value here on Soto to hit the most home runs at 27/1 odds.

Astros' Yordan Alvarez Home Run Leader (+1600, FanDuel)

I think there is a good chance that Alvarez would have contended for this last season if not for a knee issue that plagued him during the summer months of 2023. From June through August, he hit just nine homers in 38 games. Now fully healthy, I love his chances to lead MLB in home runs.

People think that Alvarez is a grizzled veteran at this point, but the guy is just 26. It really seems like he is a lot older than that, but he is just now entering the prime of his career.

Alvarez raised his flyball rate by 6 percentage points last year compared to his career average, so he is getting the ball in the air more. He certainly has the power to lead the league in home runs, and he has the potential to hit 50-plus, in my opinion, if he can stay healthy. That is a big question based on his history, but that is why we are getting 16/1 odds. I think it is worth a bet.

Blue Jays' Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 33.5 Home Runs (-110, DraftKings)

I think this is a good buy-low spot on Vlad Jr. to have a bounce-back season after hitting just 26 homers last year. He had 48 of them in 2021 and 32 of them in 2022, and his number has just continued to go down since his rookie season. With the power that he clearly has in his bat, it's curious as to why his homers are falling.

I don't think he has lost that power potential, and I think he is out to prove something this season. Everyone seems to have written him off already due to the lack of success that the Blue Jays have had, and he is often overlooked playing in Toronto. He's lost that star status, but I think he can earn that back by hitting 34 homers this season.

MORE: MLB Full-Season Player Prop Picks

With the MLB season right around the corner, take advantage of BetQL's free trial and see what the model is projecting for NBA, college hoops, NHL and more! Start your free trial today!