MLB Play of the Day for Thursday, May 6: Miami Marlins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

The Miami Marlins have won the first two of their three game set against the Arizona Diamondbacks, can they make it three in a row on Thursday night?

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Miami Marlins (-135, 7.5) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks - 6:40 PM EST

The BetQL Model is betting on the Marlins to sweep the Diamondbacks at home, making this a ⭐⭐⭐⭐ play. 

It has been a tale of two seasons for Madison Bumgarner, who had three consecutive poor starts to start the season, but followed it up with a trio of spectacular starts, including a seven inning no hitter against the Braves. 

So, will the Mad Bum please stand up?

The truth is, this is not the Bumgarner of old. He struggles to finish off hitters which leads to an increased pitch count. While he may not be as bad as an 11.20 ERA through three starts, he is going to struggle to stay on the mound for more than five innings, which he has only been able to do in that unofficial no-no against the Braves.

Behind Bumgarner is a bad Diamondbacks bullpen. The unit has the third lowest wins above replacement for relief pitchers and has been used often in this series against the Marlins. After getting just nine innings combined from the two starting pitchers this series, a tired pen will be tasked with limiting the Miami offense if Bumgarner can't go long.

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Pablo Lopez will get the start for the Marlins, who has been fantastic this season. In his fourth season, Lopez has continued to establish himself as one of the most underrated pitchers in the bigs, posting a 2.24 ERA with a 3.13 FIP. 

Count on Lopez to keep the Diamondbacks bats down, while Bumgarner will struggle to go deep into this matchup. Miami is primed for a sweep of Arizona, and bet accordingly. 

The BetQL Model makes the Marlins -153, showing confidence in the home team to show up. 

Pick: Marlins -135