MLB Longshots: Futures To Bet During The All-Star Break

We’re now at the MLB All-Star break and it’s time to look at where some value is in the futures markets. Below, I identified specific players and teams that could overachieve down the stretch. Whether these are worth heavy consideration or just a sprinkle is up to you and, of course, you can just ignore them, but after scouring baseball markets, these specific plays stand out to me.

Note that the price and sportsbooks listed below are the longest odds you can find for each specific pick.

Ceddanne Rafaela To Win AL Rookie Of The Year (+1100, BetMGM)

Red Sox shortstop/outfielder Ceddane Rafaela has +917 consensus odds to win the AL Rookie of the Year award, ranking behind Wyatt Langford (+128), Luis Gil (+198) and Colton Cowser. Here’s how their numbers stack up against each other:

Langford: 72 GP, .254/.318/.384, 5 HR, 21 XBH, 40 RBI, 8 SB

Gil: 19 GS, 102.1 IP, 10-5, 3.17 ERA, 1.08 WHIP

Cowser: 88 GP, .219/.306/.418, 12 HR, 26 XBH, 34 RBI, 5 SB

Rafaela: 93 GP, .246/.272/.419, 11 HR, 31 XBH, 52 RBI, 11 SB

The 23 year old has led the Red Sox (53-42) to an impressive first half, leads all MLB rookie position players in RBI, leads all AL rookies in extra-base hits, sits one behind Cowser for the AL rookie lead in home runs and leads all AL rookies in runs scored (45). The next-best AL rookie in runs scored is Wenceel Perez with 37.

If the Sox manage to sneak into the playoffs and defy all expectations, it’ll be difficult to ignore Rafaela’s expectations and I’m not sold on the guys who currently rank in front of him. Langford’s numbers don’t resemble those of a frontrunner, Gil is showing negative regression and Cowser has 18 fewer RBI than Rafaela playing in a much more talented offense.

Texas Rangers To Win AL West Division (+1500, BetRivers)

At the break, the Rangers (46-50) sit just 5.0 games back from the Mariners (52-46) and 4.0 games behind the Astros (50-46) in the AL West standings. The defending champions dealt with injuries and disappointing play before the break, but just got Max Scherzer back and should get Josh Jung and Evan Carter back from injury soon. 

With seven games against the White Sox, seven against the Angels and five against the Athletics among other inferior opponents in the second half, I really like the Rangers to go on a run and get back to the postseason to defend their World Series title. They only have three more games against the Astros, but Texas will face off seven more times against the division-leading Mariners before the regular season comes to a close, which will give them a chance to make up ground.

This is also a bet on future Hall of Fame manager Bruce Bochy; at +1500, the defending champions have a 6.25% chance to win the division despite being just 5.0 games back with 66 games to play. That’s absurd to me and I think there’s clear value here.

Pittsburgh Pirates To Make Playoffs (+580, Caesars) & Win NL Central Division (+2500, BetMGM)

The Pirates (48-48, 6.5 GB) may currently be in third place in the NL Central behind the Brewers (55-42) and Cardinals (50-46), but there are plenty of reasons to love Pittsburgh’s outlook in the second half, starting with All-Star starter and rookie sensation Paul Skenes, who has transformed this pitching staff into a very solid one. Mitch Keller has also pitched like an All-Star while rookie Jared Jones has been electric in his own right. Bailey Falter has also been much improved and the bullpen has been mostly trustworthy.

Before the deadline, this team should reward their loyal fans by adding proven bats or even another difference-maker for their rotation or bullpen. Hitting just .231 as a team (tied with the Reds for worst in the NL), the Bucs also rank T12th in the NL in runs scored, so they need some help in that regard. 

Perhaps they’ll go after a top-end starter like Garrett Crochet of the White Sox to add another K artist to their rotation. Maybe they’ll go after rookie flamethrower Mason Miller of the Athletics, who would probably trade him for a haul of young prospects. Speaking of the A’s, Brent Rooker is having a career year and would be a boost to this lineup. There are going to be a number of impactful players on the block.

Nonetheless, I don’t view any team in this division as untouchable and think the Pirates have a real shot to make a run in the second half given the presumed elite starting pitching they’re going to get from the top three guys in their rotation in particular. 

Pittsburgh’s second half schedule is tough, but at +580 odds (14.71% implied probability) to make the playoffs where they’re 1.5 games back from one of the three Wild Card spots and +2500 (3.85% implied probability) to win the division, there’s some clear value to take advantage of in my opinion.