Why You Should Bet Jackson Merrill To Win NL Rookie of the Year Right Now

Skenes Shut Down?

Right now, San Diego Padres star rookie Jackson Merrill is -130 to win NL Rookie of the Year after being 5/1 or longer less than a couple of weeks ago. Tons of sharp money has flown in on him to win the award, and I very much agree with them. I bought in on him when he was 4/1 to win it, and even now at -150, I still think there is a small bit of room. I would not be shocked if, by the start of September, he was -2000 or more to win the award, which right now is between him and Pittsburgh Pirates RHP Paul Sknes. There are several reasons to think this could be the case, with the biggest of them being the very real possibility that Skenes will not pitch for the majority of the last month of the season.

Pittsburgh isn't totally out of the playoff race yet, but they are eight games out of a wild-card spot and things are looking extremely bleak for them. I would be shocked if they make a run and actually make it, with one of the weakest offenses in baseball and poor defense as well. The strongest part of their team has been pitching, with the rookie Skenes leading the way. He's been phenomenal, no doubt, with a 2.30 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in 98 innings of work. However, with him being a rookie with innings limits and the Pirates likely out of playoff contention by early September, I would say there is a very high likelihood that the organization doesn't take chances and shuts him down early.

Plus, his velocity has gone down on average by 2 mph since his debut, so fatigue is starting to set in for him and his performance will be affected by that.

WAR

That would immediately make Merrill a MASSIVE favorite to win the award, considering that behind these two, Jackson Chourio is the closest with 60/1 odds. Even if Skenes for some reason keeps pitching in meaningless games in September, Merrill still leads the NL in WAR for a rookie, with a 3.9 compared to Skenes' 2.6. He is unlikely to catch up to him in that category no matter what, and WAR goes a long way toward who wins the ROTY award each year.

Best Bet

Jackson Merrill NL ROTY (-130, BetMGM)

I'd bet this immediately if I was you before the value is completely sucked out of this, and I suspect that will be soon. Look for Merrill to be an overwhelming favorite by early September, barring any sort of injury. The Padres will be in the thick of the playoff race and even have a chance to win their division, and they will need Merrill's bat to continue to generate for them.