The Scary Truth About the Arizona Diamondbacks: Why You Should Fade Them in Betting Markets
Arizona’s strong offense masks serious pitching flaws that could derail their postseason hopes.
Dan Karpuc - Aug 28, 2024, 1:39pm EDT
The Arizona Diamondbacks have been one of the most intriguing teams this season, currently holding a 75-56 record and sitting in the first Wild Card spot in the National League. But before you place any bets on them to win the NL West (+800), the NL Pennant (+850), or the World Series (+1600), you might want to take a closer look at some alarming stats.
The Diamondbacks’ pitching staff has been a glaring weakness all season. With a team ERA of 4.43, they rank sixth-worst in the league. Even more concerning is their performance in losses, where they’ve posted a disastrous 6.50 ERA and 1.64 WHIP—both of which are second-worst in the MLB. While they’ve managed a solid 75 wins, the pitching has still been shaky, with a 2.93 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in those games, highlighting their reliance on strong run support.
Offensively, Arizona has been a powerhouse, leading the league with 701 runs scored. However, there’s reason to believe they’ve been more lucky than good, given their .300 BABIP, the fifth-highest in MLB. This level of good fortune on balls in play might not be sustainable, and if their offense regresses, the pitching won’t be able to carry the load.
Their starting rotation also raises red flags. While Zac Gallen (10-6, 3.65 ERA) and Brandon Pfaadt (8-6, 4.08 ERA) have been serviceable, the back end of the rotation is concerning. Merrill Kelly remains undefeated at 4-0 but with a shaky 3.98 ERA, and Ryne Nelson has a mediocre 9-6 record with a 4.29 ERA. The biggest disappointment might be prized free-agent signing Jordan Montgomery, who has been relegated to the bullpen after struggling to a 6-8 record and 6.44 ERA.
The Diamondbacks are just 3.0 games behind the Dodgers (78-53) in the NL West and hold a slim 1.5-game lead over the Padres (73-58) at the time of this writing. However, their pitching woes make them vulnerable, and they’re only 4.5 games ahead of the Braves (70-60) for the final Wild Card spot. With teams like the Mets, Giants, Cardinals, and Cubs still in the hunt, Arizona’s postseason hopes are anything but secure.
For bettors, the Diamondbacks' pitching issues should be a major concern. While their offense has kept them afloat, a potential regression and the continued struggles on the mound could spell disaster down the stretch. Fading Arizona in the betting markets might be the smartest play.
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