Now Is The Time To Back The Padres
San Diego is in a great position moving forward
Matthew Horner - Aug 24, 2024, 9:26am EDT
The Road Ahead
The San Diego Padres are currently sitting in third place in the NL West division, but they are just a half of a game behind the second-place Arizona Diamondbacks and just 4.5 games behind the division-leading Los Angeles Dodgers. Truly, this division is likely to come down to the wire between these three teams, and I think anyone can win it. With that being said, the prices in the market seem to think the Dodgers have an 89% chance to win the NL West. With only a 4.5-game lead, that seems pretty remarkable to me. Baseball is a very unpredictable sport with a lot of variance that can shift odds in the market very quickly. In fact, San Diego was just -200 (67%) to make the playoffs less than two weeks ago. They are now -1400 (93%) in the market that quickly, and the same can be said for this division.
I like the way the Padres are set up to close this season out more so than L.A. and Arizona. Sure, the Dodgers are loaded with offensive weapons, but I don't trust their starting pitching rotation with guys like Bobby Miller having a real role, and regression candidates like Gavin Stone. Arizona has issues there as well, and I think they peaked a bit too early in their comeback bid. They have been incredible since the All-Star break, but I think that is going to cool off soon. They just got swept by the Rays, so maybe that comes now.
The Padres have the best bullpen of either team, especially after the trade deadline acquiring Tanner Scott and Jason Adam. They have one of the best offenses in baseball against right-handed pitching, owning a 115 wRC+ as a lineup.
Best Bets
Padres Win NL West +1100 | Padres Win NL +750 | Padres Win World Series +1500
Now is the time to start buying on the Padres before their prices get even worse. I bet them at +2000 to win the West, +1100 to win the NL, and at +3000 to win the World Series at the beginning of August, and gave them out on our show "Send It In" when I appeared as a guest. Those numbers have already flown down, and I expect them to get even shorter going forward. They have a favorable schedule the rest of the way, and they have back-to-back series' with the D-Backs and Dodgers to end the year that could very well decide who wins the division.
At these prices, I still think they are worth a bet.