Art of the Steal: Swiping Bags Is More Popular Than Ever In 2024

Stealing Is Cool Again

For the last 20+ years, stealing bases was mostly a forgotten art in MLB. Teams combined for 3,000 steals only twice in the seasons between 2001-2022, whereas they reached that milestone in 21 of the previous 25 seasons before '01 (per ESPN). Most managers didn't really emphasize it anymore, instead choosing to focus mostly on power-hitting and smacking homers out of the park. It was seen as too risky, and no one wanted to get an out on the bases. However, times have since changed since the start of the 2023 season, and what is old is new again.

Managers are once again seeing the steal as a valuable asset in games, getting more super-athletic players in position to score.

MLB teams are on pace to steal more than 3,500 bases in 2024 after stealing 3,503 bases in 2023, which was the second-highest total in the live ball era to 1987's 3,585. Players like Cincinnati's Elly De La Cruz, who has 59 stolen bases as I type this article, are leading the charge and showing how important swiping bags have become over the last two years.

Same Game, New Rules

One really doesn't have to look very far to discover why teams are stealing more bases as of late, as MLB has made every effort possible to make sure the art of the steal returns to the game. Rule changes that began at the beginning of last season have made it easier than ever for uber-athletic and quick athletes to swipe bags. Pitchers are now limited to just two pickoff attempts or step-offs per batter, where before they could do it an unlimited amount of times to try and keep baserunners from advancing. It also helped that they increased the size of the bases themselves, which reduced the distance between them by 4 1/2 inches, making it that much more likely that a player could reach them safely.

As a result of this, not only have attempts gone up, but stealing success has skyrocketed as well. Baserunners were successful on more than 80 percent of their steal attempts in 2023, which was the best success rate in MLB history. So far in 2024, they have a 78 percent success rate, which would be the second-highest.

Betting Markets

As far as betting on someone to steal goes, markets have caught up to this trend at this point. However, I always look for pitchers that are due for some regression, and which players that have speed have a good matchup against them. For instance, if Bobby Witt was facing someone like Tyler Anderson, he would be a great bet to steal a base that night. Anderson is due to get shelled, and Witt has speed and stealing prowess. His chances of getting on-base is high, and with the success rate this year, his chances of swiping one are very high.

This is a bet type that you should now be considering once again, which is very exciting!