MLBGo Yard with our MLB Home Run Derby Predictions
One of the most anticipated events of the MLB All-Star Week is just around the corner. Our MLB experts take a look at the 8 competitors and give their predictions.
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Nigel Frith - Jul 13, 2026, 7:17am EDT
What a difference a year makes in MLB. From the eight sluggers that took part in the 2025 Home Run Derby, only Junior Caminero returns to the field this year. Join me as I take a look at the field of competitors this year and break down their chances to take home the home run crown. BetQL is your go to source for MLB predictions and I share my MLB expert picks along with our MLB computer predictions for every game all season long.
Kyle Schwarber, Phillies +310 on DraftKings
Schwarber is leading MLB so far this season with 32 home runs at the mid-point of the season, just one more than notable absence Yordan Alvarez. The DH from Philadelphia has the lowest batting average in the top 10 home run hitters while also leading that group with 144 Ks through 93 games at the plate. Playing in his home park definitely gives him an advantage with 19 of his long balls coming at Citizens Bank Park.


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Claim OfferJunior Caminero, Rays +380 on FanDuel
Tampa's 3B is back for a second year in a row and looks to be in good form with 2 hoe runs in his last four games. As previously mentioned, he's the only slugger that took part in this competition last year which has to give him a bit of an advantage. Add to that is 28 home runs this season and it's easy to see why he's certainly one of the favorites.
Munetaka Murakami, White Sox +500 on FanDuel
The rookie from Japan is a bit of a wild card to me. He's not the best home run hitter on his team, and he's tied for 18th with 20 home runs so far this season. He's coming off missing the entire month of June, which had he been able to play, would have almost certainly added to his HR total. He's my dark horse for this competition and a player I'm certainly keeping an eye on for the second half of the season.
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Claim OfferJordan Walker, Cardinals 12% likelihood on Polymarket
The Cardinals RF has 22 homers on the season with the majority of them coming on the road for the red birds. The wrap on Walker has been a lack of consistency as he's yet to go a full season in his previous three years with St. Louis. He's already surpassed his total for most HRs in a season so I expect a good performance from Walker in Philadelphia.
Jac Caglianone, Royals 12% likelihood on Polymarket
I mentioned earlier my confusion with Murakami making the cut for the derby, but Caglianone really has me scratching my head. 15 home runs is nothing to sneeze at for sure, but the K.C. RF isn't setting the world on fire in any offensive category that makes me think he has a legitimate shot at winning despite getting odds that are much better than a lot of bigger names. Maybe I'm just missing something, but he's a real long shot in my opinion.
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Claim OfferBryce Harper, Phillies +750 on DraftKings
The Phillies 1B might not be the power hitter he use to be, but he's still been able to hit 20 home runs this season. His 57 RBIs and .862 OBS are still some of the tops in the league. the 33 year old gets to play in his home ball park, which has to give him a bit of a edge over everyone but his teammate Schwarber. I'm expecting big things from Harper, he might not win it all, but I think he he has the potential.
Ben Rice, Yankees +850 on DraftKings
The Yankees 1B has already set a new career record for most HRs in a season despite playing in 50 fewer games. His 29 HRs are the 3rd most in MLB this season and is leading the most famous team in MLB in every offensive category. How he's not getting better odds is beyond me, but he's who I'm putting my money on.
Wilson Conteras, Red Sox +1300 on DraftKings
The oldest batter in the field is currently serving a five game suspension for what transpired last month against the Nationals. Like Harper, his best days may be behind him, but he's still gone long 20 times this season and hast 61 RBIs and one of the best OPS in MLB this season. The sportsbooks are giving him the longest odds of winning it all, but I think the Red Sox 1B might just have what it takes to shock the world.
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