Breaking Down The 2021 NL Cy Young Race

• Max Scherzer is the consensus favorite to win the NL Cy Young, with his best odds at +125 on FanDuel.
  
• Milwaukee's Corbin Burnes is close behind Scherzer and bettors can get odds as good as +160 at Caesars.
  
• The relative long-shot is Scherzer's teammate Walker Buehler, who is +350 at most of the major sportsbooks.

Odds To Win 2021 NL Cy Young

The NL Cy Young race is basically down to a three-man competition between the Milwaukee Brewers’ Corbin Burnes and Dodgers teammates Max Scherzer and Walker Buehler. Scherzer is the consensus favorite, if only slightly, with his best odds at +125 on FanDuel, but Burnes (+150) is a close second. Buehler (+350) is still in the hunt, but would need a lot of assistance down the stretch to steal enough Cy Young votes from those other two aces. 

A race this tight could be decided by the final few starts of the season, so let’s take a look at which pitcher might have the easiest path to the NL Cy Young (all stats through Thursday, Sept. 16). 

Max Scherzer 

Stats: 162 IP, 14-4, 2.17 ERA, 219:33 K-to-BB ratio, 5.2 WAR

Projected starts: at CIN (9/18), at ARI (9/24), vs. SD (9/30) 

Scherzer hasn't surrendered a run in his last 29 innings and he has a 0.88 ERA, 0.68 WHIP and 72:6 K-to-BB ratio in eight starts, all Dodgers wins, since joining Los Angeles. The Dodgers may shuffle his starts a bit to give him an extra one down the stretch, but with outings against playoff contenders Cincinnati and San Diego on deck (and possibly Milwaukee to close the regular season), this won’t be a cakewalk for Mad Max. 

Corbin Burnes 

Stats: 152 IP, 10-4, 2.25 ERA, 210:29 K-to-BB ratio, 7.1 WAR

Projected starts: vs. CHC (9/18), vs. STL (9/23), at STL (9/28), vs. LAD (10/3)

This is interesting. Burnes gets to pick on the Cubs this weekend, then after consecutive starts against the Cardinals, I fully expect the Brewers to line him up to face the Dodgers -- and potentially Buehler or Scherzer -- for his final regular-season start. That’s a tough end to the season, but the door is open for Burnes to strengthen his Cy Young case against his own competition. There’s value here, and the best odds for Burnes to win the Cy Young are +160 at Casears.  

Walker Buehler 

Stats: 186 IP, 14-3, 2.32 ERA, 189:47 K-to-BB ratio, 4.6 WAR

Projected starts: at CIN (9/17), at COL (9/23), vs. SD (9/29)

Buehler obviously has a similar schedule as Scherzer down the stretch and may even get an extra start against Milwaukee in the final series before the playoffs. However, he may be too far behind his teammate and Burnes in some respects, including votes, to make a strong enough Cy Young push.