It is never too early to start betting on NFL games, and with the recent schedule release, sportsbooks have started posting odds on Week 1 games. The season may be months out, but this is one of the most advantageous times to bet on the games since money has not poured in quite yet. You can find early lines that may be wrong or a bit off, and that can really give you an advantage as we draw closer to Week 1.
A bet that stood out to me right away when looking through DraftKings' odds was the New York Giants +6.5 points against the Tennessee Titans at +100 odds. There are a few reasons why I like this bet, and most of them have to do with the opposite direction these teams are trending.
If you read my work from last season, I really faded the Titans in most of their games because I simply didn't believe the team was nearly as good as their record said. They have some major regression coming their way in my opinion, with the whole Ryan Tannehill meltdown in the postseason last year, and his recent comments about rookie QB Malik Willis drawing criticism. This easily could cause a distraction both on and off the field. Derrick Henry will continue to get his yards and touches, but the passing game figures to be a mess. His best receiver in A.J. Brown was traded to the Philadelphia Eagles, so the offense will rely on Robert Woods and Treylon Burks. Woods is returning off a torn ACL, and Burks is a rookie. Tennessee has been a far worse team without Brown over the past few seasons, scoring almost a full touchdown more per game on average with him on the field than off of it.
As for the Giants, they have done nothing but get better since the end of last season. For starters, the dynamic duo of Joe Judge and Jason Garrett is gone, and by dynamic I mean catastrophic. Judge was an absolute disaster as head coach, and was fired after some ridiculous comments to the media, and his career 10-23 record. Garrett was the bane of Dallas Cowboys fans' existence for years as their head coach, and as the offensive coordinator of the Giants last year, his offense averaged 18 points per game. It's addition by subtraction. Saquon Barkley, Kenny Golladay, Kadarius Toney and Sterling Shepard will all be back and healthy for the 2022 campaign, which will help new head coach Brian Daboll figure out how he wants to run his offense. New York also invested in their offensive and defensive lines, with significant upgrades to both.
No. 7 overall pick Evan Neal will play opposite of former first-round draft pick Andrew Thomas, who made a huge leap in pass-protection in 2021 from his rookie campaign. The offensive line is at perhaps its best state in over a decade. Fifth overall pick Kayvon Thibodeaux will bring the pressure on defense, having had nine sacks in 11 games at Oregon last season, and improving a Giants pass-rush that was third-worst last season.
To me, these teams are going in opposite directions, and getting 6.5 with New York sounds great to me. Plus, underdogs historically thrive in Week 1. Give me the G-Men to cover.
Agree? Place this bet now!