The 2023 NFL playoffs continue Sunday with two more divisional-round games: Bengals-Bills and Cowboys-49ers. To help you make the best bets this weekend, the BetQL editors have picked a few of their favorite player props for Sunday below using key trends and data from the BetQL NFL model.
BetQL subscribers can see more betting trends and all of our NFL best bets, including player props, with star ratings for every game. Take advantage of BetQL's free trial and see all of this week's best NFL bets!
The 2023 NFL playoffs continue Sunday with two more divisional-round games: Bengals-Bills and Cowboys-49ers. To help you make the best bets this weekend, the BetQL editors have picked a few of their favorite player props for Sunday below using key trends and data from the BetQL NFL model.
BetQL subscribers can see more betting trends and all of our NFL best bets, including player props, with star ratings for every game. Take advantage of BetQL's free trial and see all of this week's best NFL bets!
I've circled three positional matchups to exploit in this Bengals-Bills showdown.
First, the Bengals have been excellent at containing QBs on the ground, allowing the fewest rushing attempts and the third-fewest rushing yards to the position, along with just two rushing scores by QBs. That's why I'm looking at the under on Josh Allen rushing props and avoiding his TD props this weekend. Josh Allen under 50.5 rush yards (-120, PointsBet).
However, Cincinnati is vulnerable against tight ends, finishing the regular season among the top 10 in most receptions and receiving yards allowed to the position. Bills TE Dawson Knox has been a key part of the offense lately, and I expect that to continue Sunday. Dawson Knox over 35.5 receiving yards (-115, PointsBet).
Lastly, Buffalo has allowed the fourth-most TD catches to WRs (18), which looks great for the Bengals' passing attack. Ja'Marr Chase is a fine TD target, of course, though not the best value at +130. I'll be looking at Tee Higgins (+200 TD on PointsBet), who scored against Buffalo on Jan. 2, and sprinkling Tyler Boyd (+340, PointsBet).
McCaffrey has gone over 105.5 total yards in six of his last nine games, including last week when he had 15 carries for 119 yards and two catches for 17 yards and a touchdown. Despite the fact that this Niners offense features other stars, they’re reliant on McCaffrey to establish the run early on. Not only that, but this is rookie Brock Purdy’s first time playing in this atmosphere. I expect a number of designed short passes to get Purdy comfortable and CMC should be one of the main beneficiaries of that. There’s arguably no better running back to target on rushing + receiving yards props and since it’s as much as a 10-yard discount versus last week, I’m all over this.
I wanted to just take Dak Prescott to go over 0.5 INTs but that’s juiced to -150. So why not go with a same-game parlay and add in Brock Purdy to throw one as well? While Dak played an impressive game against the Bucs, let’s not forget that Tampa Bay’s defense isn’t good and that Dak had thrown an interception in seven straight games to end the regular season. The 49ers defense is a massive step up from what the Cowboys saw last week.
Dallas’ defense is also going to be a problem for Brock Purdy, who hasn't been turnover prone, but is still a very young, inexperienced quarterback playing in the biggest game of his life. That’s a lot of pressure, especially against the pressure that Micah Parsons is going to put on Purdy.
Samuel scored a touchdown against the Seahawks in the wild-card round and I think he can score once again against the Cowboys. While he did miss time with injury, I see him quickly establishing a connection with Brock Purdy, and I expect the 49ers to use Samuel in a variety of ways this weekend, giving him a great shot at another TD. BetMGM has the best price for a Deebo TD, and this could be a great piece to build around for BetMGM's One-Game Parlay Insurance promo.
MORE NFL: SATURDAY’S EXPERT PICKS | SATURDAY PLAYER PROPS | SUNDAY’S EXPERT PICKS
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