ATS Record: Bengals 12-5, Bills 8-8-1
O/U Record: Bengals 8-9, Bills 7-10
We didn’t get to see this matchup in full Week 17 in Cincinnati, but the Bengals and Bills will cross paths again in the divisional round of the playoffs. Of course, the Bills will have the fortune of hosting this week’s game, going 8-1 at home this season, including last week’s narrow win over Miami.
To their credit, the Bengals were a respectable 6-3 SU on the road this season. More importantly, the Bengals have now won nine straight games after knocking off the Ravens for the second straight week. Cincinnati failed to cover the spread in both of those games against Baltimore, although the Bengals went 13-1 ATS from Weeks 3-16. That stretch includes a win as an underdog against the Chiefs. However, the Bengals lost the only game this season in which they were a road underdog, which ironically came early in the season against the Ravens.
As for the Bills, as ugly as last week’s game was for them, it was their eighth consecutive victory. However, since their Week 8 bye, Buffalo is just 4-7 ATS, as they haven’t always been able to put teams away, which happened last week against the Dolphins.
That said, last week’s close win could be a good omen for Buffalo. Under Sean McDermott, the Bills are 11-1 ATS when coming off a win by three points or fewer and 14-4 ATS after winning by six points or fewer. McDermott is now 4-4 SU in the playoffs with all four of those wins coming at home and all four losses coming on the road. In fact, in the Super Bowl era, the Bills are 13-1 SU in home playoff games.
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This feels like too many points to be giving Cincinnati in the playoffs. The Bengals didn’t look very good last weekend against the Ravens, especially their offensive line, but I don’t think we get that same poor performance from them two weeks in a row. Cincinnati’s defense was much better than the offense, which is a good sign given that the Bills struggled so much against Miami’s defense. If the Bengals can get to Josh Allen as much as the Dolphins did, then I think they cover this number with ease.
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Bengals-Bills Over 38.5
Bengals-Bills Under 58.5
Bengals +15.5
Bills +4.5
OGP Odds: +200
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